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Thursday August 5, 2010 - 09:44:37 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- ECB, BOE and Weekly Jobs

 

The Daily Forex View

Forex Analysis


ECB, BOE and Weekly Jobs

10:00 GMT- Aug 5 (global-view.com) The focus early today in North American hours will be the BOE and ECB policy decisions. No rate change is expected from either central bank, but it is interesting that in both cases the focus in on a policy tightening down the road while both Japan and the U.S. are mulling a new round of quantitative ease. The sluggishness of the U.S. economy is expected to be the major topic of discussion at the FOMC meeting next week. Japan also continues to express dissatisfaction with the strength of the JPY. A major focus is the apparent Japanese line in the sand for USD/JPY at the 85.00 level. Many speculate there could be intervention at that line

Traders are gearing up for U.S. jobs reports today and Friday. Expectations for the data remain low. Wednesday saw the EURUSD hit an air pocket in morning trade. While that sudden decline might have been due to an order, such a move often can be indicative of underlying vulnerability.

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: In North America, U.S. weekly jobless claims are due. Also weekly natural gas inventories are slated.

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

  

Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 9:34
EUR 1.3200 41 JPY 113.82 41 JPY 137.00 7
GBP 1.5888 1 GBP 83.08 25 CHF 166.12 -107
CHF 1.0456 -68 CHF 1.3802 -47 CHF vs.    
JPY 86.23 4       JPY 82.47 57

The EURUSD is now higher on the day and the GBPUSD is steady. The EURGBP cross is up. Traders still are aware of the European sovereign debt situation In the GBP the U.K. new government is always politically vulnerable.

The EURCHF is down. The SNB strong stand in supporting the EUR against the CHF has waned after massive FX losses.. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB. 

The USDJPY is steady and the EURJPY cross is unchanged. While Japanese public finances are a mess, analysts point out that most JGBs are owned by Japanese, so Japan is not dependent on foreign investment. The government has been pressed the BOJ to promote growth and favors a lower exchange rate.

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         9:34
CAD 1.0123 -52 AUD 0.9158 -8 Gold 1195 0.62
CNY 6.7720 -10 NZD 0.7280 -67 WTI 82.16 -0.39

The risk trade continues to be turned on and off almost daily. As for the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD), they are mixed vs. the USD. The Bank of Canada recently hiked interest rates by 25bps. The BOC sent mixed signals afterwards. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. In Australia, RBA is unlikely to tighten in August. The RBNZ is now in a reduced tightening mode. Oil and gold are mixed. Gold is still favored as a refuge from paper money. We have favored AUD, CAD, gold and oil recently, but doubts are creeping in as deflationary pressures mount.

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

Equities and Bonds are also risk trades. Far East equities closed mixed. European bourses are up. U.S. equities are better. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.96%, 0 bps.

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

  

Equities           9:34
NIK 9654 165 DAX 6350 19 DJIA 10680 -11
HSI 21552 2 FTSE 5400 14 S&P 1127 -1
SSEC 2621 -18 SMI 6391 0 NAS 2304 -1
ASX 4567 24       TSE 11845 21

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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