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Thursday August 5, 2010 - 10:27:11 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 05/08/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis August 05,
Analysis: Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate is a measure of
the percentage of the total labor
force that is unemployed but actively
seeking employment and willing to work
in the US. A high percentage indicates
weakness in the labor market. A low
percentage is a positive indicator for
the labor market in the US and should
be taken as positive for the USD. The
analysts predict a future reading of
The Euro broke both the support and resistance specified
report, without being able to reach the targets specified.
dollar managed to drag the Euro to 1.3130. And as we said
report: "The fact that the rising move is slowing down warns of a
correction for the whole rise from Friday's low. Such a correction
a violent one, with its size a little less than 200 pips, since its
target is at 1.3086." And up until now, we have seen the price dropping
Tuesday's top almost 130 pips! Technically, what is really important is
we are approaching a very important trend line, and are about to test
the trend line rising from June 29th low on hourly the chart, which
running very close to yesterday's low. Therefore, we should keep eyes
open today, and consider all scenarios, and keep separate trading
ready. If we test the above mentioned trend line, it will be the single
important technical event for the rest of the week. This line is at
and should not be broken in order to keep the technical outlook
But if broken, we will witness a strong drop to 1.3026 at least,
probably will be followed by a test of the important 1.2933 as well. On
other hand, short term resistance is at 1.3194, and it is the key for
gains. If we break it, we will target 1.3311 &
* 1.3130: the rising trend line from Jun 29th
low & yesterday's low. The
single most important support for the time
* 1.3026: Jul 20th high.
* 1.2933: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise
* 1.3194: the falling trend line from
Tuesday's high on intraday charts.
* 1.3311: Mar 24th low.
* 1.3383: Mar
The Dollar/Yen did not
break the support specified in yesterday's report,
not even with a single
pip. It consolidated above it, and edged higher until
it reached 86.43. We
can classify that as a clear attempt to rebound, coming
after the current
falling wave (which we talked about several times) has
reached its first
suggested target at 85.52. Nevertheless, we see these
attempts as weak and
shallow. We believe the falling wave will continue to
seek lower targets,
after a limited correction, but what are the next
targets? In the attached
chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the
falling channel from Sep 07 top.
Although the bottom of this channel is very
far away, and is just above 74,
but there is an interesting trend line
inside it, combining the monthly lows
of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is
around 82.65 currently, providing
us with a perfect target for this dropping
wave, since we still expect, as we
did before, that it will dive below
84.81. Therefore, we expect the price to
reach this target, and as we do, we
also realize that the limited volatility
of this pair indicates that this
will take some time. As for the short term,
the support is at 85.74, and
breaking it would indicate that we are already
moving lower with the
objective of breaking 84.81, and reaching lows not seen
in 15 years. This
break will target 84.81 first, then 83.87. The resistance
is at 86.58, and
if broken, the price will continue its bounce, targeting
87.49 & the
* 85.74: Fibonacci
61.8% for yesterday's bounce.
* 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 low, and the low of the
last 15 years.
* 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave
compared to the wave which started at
* 86.58: the retest level for the rising
trend line which combines the lows
of Jul 16th & 22nd.
* 87.49: Jul
* 88.10: Jul 28th high.
---Forex trading analysis written
by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 16 Oct /ul>
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
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