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Tuesday June 1, 2004 - 07:47:42 GMT -

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Euro Holds Above Fibo Support

Daily Forex Technical Report 6-1-2004

Euro Holds Above Fibo Support
100-day SMA Is Next Target For Dollar Yen Bears

Thin holiday trading has resulted in more profit taking in the EURUSD. Immediate support at 1.2180, the May 5 & April 8 highs and the 38.2% retracement of 1.2927-1.1758 has held a test in late Asian trading. Despite the resilience, buy on dip players will continue to look for opportunities to initiate long positions towards the former resistance turned support at 1.2100, which is the moving average confluence and 38.2% fibo of 1.0760-1.2927. A break above 1.2295, the May 28 high / 100-day SMA and upper Bollinger will reinstall upside momentum for a move towards 1.2385, the April 1 high and 1.2480, the 61.8% retracement. A close below the May 27 1.2086 low would jeopardize the overall bullish bias. The biggest mover in Monday's quiet trading was USDJPY. The pair broke but failed to sustain losses below support at 109.35/15, the 50 & 200-day SMA cross / April 22 & May 4 low and 50% retracement of 103.40-114.90.
With the downtrend intact, bears will continue to sell into the corrective rally for an opportunity to target 108.40, the 100-day SMA. Immediate resistance is at the former support level of 110.50/60, the 38.2% retracement of 103.40-114.90 / May 4 high and 200-day EMA. Bulls appear to be tempted to test the key 1.8500 fibo resistance (61.8% of 1.9140-1.7450) in the GBPUSD. With daily stochastics at extremely overbought levels, bulls may still find opportunities to buy on dips. Immediate support is at 1.8295, the May 28 & 31 low and the 50% retracement of 1.9140-1.7450. More significant support continues to be at 1.8100, the May 27 low / 10-day EMA and 38.2% retracement of 1.9140-1.7450. Bears will have few clear shots, but 1.8460/1.8500 might inspire reversal players thanks to the 61.8% Fibo from the Feb - May bear wave. If the area breaks, resistance will become support, exposing the next intermediate resistance at 1.8650. Bearish momentum remains dominant in USDCHF below the moving average confluence. A retracement above 1.2545/55, the March 24 low and 61.8% retracement of 1.2182 -1.3226 will give bears the chance to sell towards 1.2680/1.2715, the 100-day SMA / Ichimoku cloud resistance and 50% retracement of 1.2140-1.3226. A close beyond that level would jeopardize bearish momentum. Immediate support is at Friday's 1.2425 low, followed by 1.2390, the 76.4% retracement of 1.2141 - 1.3226 and Feb 25 low. A break below that level would expose the 7 year low at 1.2140.


Comment from 05/10
On 04/16 EURGBP had a high at 6718 (slightly above our 6670/6700). A retracement followed to the 6624 Low on 04/20, 94pts below. The same scenario played out on 04/22 (high at 6729) where EURGBP had a correction to the 6623 low (04/27), 106 pts lower. The R area broke on 04/29 and acted as S from 04/30 to 05/05 (lows between 6117 & 6731). The outlook is still bearish LT but the MT picture looks now quite neutral. 6600/6630 will attract bullish range players thanks to a robust Fibo confluence (50% Fibo from the 01 - 03 bull wave & 23.6% Fibo from the Mar - Apr bear wave). If the area cracks, breakout players will immediately add to their Sterling holdings while more conservative trend followers will wait for a bounce back to the area (former S now R). Below, 6520/40 will be a decent reversal play for the bulls thanks to the Low BB and swing low. 6410/6450 would then be the next important S (breakout pt now S and 38.2% Fibo from the Apr 01 - 03 bull wave). Finally, if the market comes back to higher levels, bears will pay attention to the 6800/6830 zone where the 100 SMA, High BB and 50% Fibo from the Dec - Apr bear wave are present. 6900 is the next stop above.

On 05/10 EURGBP had a low at 6638 (slightly above our 6600/30 zone) and rallied to the 6819 High on 05/17, 181pts higher. The market fell from the level to reach yesterday's low at 6641, 178pts lower. The outlook is still quite neutral and a slight bearish bias is present. It is important to note though that we are now sitting on an intermediate S tested many times in the past weeks. As a result, bulls will probably get involved at 6600/20 in order to exploit the Low BB and a strong Fibo confluence (50% Fibo from the 01 - 03 bull wave & 23.6% Fibo from the Mar - Apr bear wave). A sustained breakout below would open the door to 6500/20 (swing low & 50% Fibo from the 00 - 03 bull wave) and 6410/50 (former breakout pt now S & 38.2% Fibo from the Apr 01 - 03 bull wave). Aggressive bears will probably try some play at 6720/50 thanks to the 100 SMA and 61.8% Fibo from the Mar - Apr bear wave. More conservative bears will consider 6810/40 (again!) thanks to the 50% Fibo from the Dec - Apr bear wave, High BB and 200 SMA.


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