The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3235
level and was supported around the $1.3120 level. The common currency tested the $1.3120 level,
representing the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.5140 to $1.1875, and
moved higher to erase some of yesterday‚Äôs losses.Traders were surprised by a
weaker-than-expected print in U.S. weekly initial jobless claims of 479,000, up
from the revised prior result of 460,000.Continuing jobless claims moved lower to 4.537 million from a revised
4.571 million.Other data saw July ICSC
chain store sales tick lower to +2.8% from 3.0%.Tomorrow‚Äôs release of July non-farm payrolls
data will be closely scrutinized to see if the U.S. labour market improved
early in the second half of the year.Forecasts
are focusing on job losses of 65,000 last month and are waiting to see if June‚Äôs
-125,000 result is revised.The
unemployment rate is expected by many to tick higher to 9.6%.Average hourly earnings data and average
weekly hours worked data will also be closely watched.The Federal Open Market Committee convenes
next week and is not expected to alter monetary policy.Some Fed-watchers believe the Fed may
eventually be forced to buy more assets at a time when it is trying to shrink
its balance sheet.In eurozone news, the European Central Bank kept interest rates
unchanged today, as expected, with the main refinancing rate steady at
1.0%.ECB President Trichet cautioned
eurozone economic growth will remain ‚Äúrelatively modest‚ÄĚ and said the economy is
said early economic data for the third quarter are improving from second
quarter data.Many banks expect the ECB
to keep official rates unchanged through the end of next year.The ECB will release revised economic
projections in September and there is a chance the projections will be narrowly
upgraded.Data released in the eurozone
today saw German factory orders climb 3.2% m/m and 24.6% y/y and June
industrial production data will be released tomorrow.Euro offers are cited around the US$
The yen appreciated
vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¬•85.70
level and was capped around the ¬•86.45 level. Traders continue to test the ¬•85 handle amid
speculation Japanese monetary authorities may conduct yen selling-intervention to
prevent the pair from moving back that level. Some policymakers have warned the
stronger yen is having a negative impact on the economy while BoJ Deputy
Governor Yamaguchi reported on 21 July that companies are able to contend with
the yen‚Äôs strength better now than last year.Policymakers, however, are expected to discuss what their policy
responses might be if the yen continues to appreciate and the global economy
decelerates.July official reserve
assets will be released overnight along with the June leading index and June
coincident index.Bank of Japan is
expected to keep monetary policy unchanged next week when the Policy Board
convenes on 10 August.Finance minister
Noda this week verbally intervened against the yen‚Äôs recent appreciation,
noting moves have been ‚Äúa bit one-sided.‚ÄĚ Noda reported ‚ÄúOur basic stance is
that disorderly and excessive currency movements are undesirable and can have a
negative impact on the stability of the economy and finance.‚ÄĚHe added he will ‚Äúcontinue to monitor
developments in markets more carefully.‚ÄĚ The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 1.73%
to close at ¬•9,653.92.U.S. dollar bids
are cited around the ¬•85.30 level.The euro
moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the
¬•112.75 level and was capped around the ¬•113.90 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ¬•135.75 level while the Swiss franc moved
higher vis-√†-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¬•82.50 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7714 in the
over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7736. The government is said to have instructed
banks to conduct stress tests to quantify the potential impact of a 60% slide
in real estate prices.People‚Äôs Bank of
China reported ‚Äúthere is still a need to strengthen the management of inflation
British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.5920 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5820 level. As expected,
Bank of England‚Äôs Monetary Policy Committee kept its main Bank rate target unchanged
at 0.50% and kept its asset purchase target unchanged at ¬£200 billion.Data to be released tomorrow include July
input and output data, June industrial production, and June manufacturing
production.Yields on ten-year gilts
reached their lowest level in fifteen months.The BoE‚Äôs quarterly inflation report will be released on Wednesday.Earlier this week, former Bank of England
Monetary Policy Committee members Gieve and Goodhart warned interest rates in
the U.K. will move higher more sharply and earlier than expected.Gieve noted he ‚Äúwouldn‚Äôt at all be surprised
to see interest rates at 2.5% a year from now,‚ÄĚ adding the Bank will want to
normalize policy ‚Äúmore quickly‚ÄĚ when the recovery is established.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5640
level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single
currency tested offers around the ¬£0.8325 level and was supported around the
franc appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0410 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0540 level. Swiss National Bank reported its foreign
reserves declined for a second consecutive month in July, an indication the
central bank may be paring the massive amount of euro it accumulated during
franc-selling interventions earlier this year.Data to be released in Switzerland
tomorrow include the July unemployment rate.Data released in Switzerland this week saw July consumer price inflation
off 0.7% m/m and up 0.4% y/y while June retail sales declined to +0.9% y/y from
the revised prior print of +3.9% y/y.Also,
the July PMI manufacturing survey improved to 66.9 from the prior reading of
65.7 and the SNB July quarterly KOF employment indicator improved to 11.2 from
a revised 3.8 in April. U.S. dollar
offers are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.The euro depreciated
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.3750 level while the British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis
the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.6565 level.
Forex Trading News
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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