The Japanese Yen is set to rise even further especially if
tomorrowâ€™s U.S. Jobs Report is worse than expected. Furthermore, the Fed is
likely to put pressure on the Dollar next week following its FOMC meeting when it
is expected to announce the renewal of its quantitative easing program.
Gains in the Yen could be limited by talk that the Bank of
Japan is set to intervene. Although the Japanese government is issuing verbal
interventions at this time, further appreciation in the Yen may hurt exports
and the economy, forcing it to act more decisively than in the past.
The U.S. Dollar traded trading mostly lower versus the major
currencies today in light trading as traders curtail activity ahead of Fridayâ€™s
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report. The employment report is expected to show a
decline of 65,000 to 90,000 jobs, pushing up the unemployment rate to 9.6%. The
public-sector part of the report is expected to show a loss of at least 165,000
jobs due to government firings of census workers. The private-sector is
forecast to have added at least 100,000 jobs.
The focus will most likely be on the private-sector number.
It this number comes out better-than-expected, look for the Dollar to rise.
The Dollar has been under pressure most of the trading day
due to a surprise drop in weekly initial claims. Unemployment benefits rose by
19,000 to 479,000 in the latest week. Pre-report estimates called for a drop to
The European Central Bank and Bank of England monetary policy
committees voted to leave there respective benchmark interest rates unchanged
at historically low levels. The ECB left its key borrowing rate at 1%. The BoE
agreed to maintain its 0.50% level. Both moves by the central banks were
Following the release of the interest rate decision, ECB
President Trichet noted that the European bank stress tests completed since the
last meeting have helped increase transparency and fueled a move toward
restoring market confidence in the banking sector.
In the wake of recent strong Euro Zone economic data,
analysts had expected Trichet to outline an exit strategy or discuss the ECBâ€™s
plan for its special liquidity provisions. In other words, is the ECB going to
continue to provide free-flowing liquidity to the market or begin to withdraw
it. Trichet indicated the ECB would consider this action on that next month.
Trichet failed to say anything really bullish about the
Euro, but actually may have helped limit gains by stating that the second half
of 2010 was likely to be â€śmuch less buoyantâ€ť than the second quarter because of
the implementation of new financial austerity measures. He also added that it
was too early to â€śdeclare victoryâ€ť in the economic crisis.
Based on todayâ€™s comments, the Euro is most likely to
continue to be driven by economic news regarding the U.S. economy. At this time, the ECB
seems a little more upbeat about the Euro Zone economy while the U.S. Fed is
being encouraged to consider the renewal of its quantitative easing program to
ward off a potential double-dip recession. As long as the U.S. economy remains weak and
interest rates low, look for the Euro to remain firm.
The Bank of England as expected left interest rates
unchanged. Traders will not be watching economic reports to see if the
implementation of new austerity measures and tax hikes has an adverse affect on
the economy after strong second-quarter GDP data was posted. The central bank
will also continue to monitor the inflation rate which is currently above the
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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