Equities Called Lower after U.S. Jobs Data Disappoints
Stocks are called lower on the opening based on pre-opening
weakness. After an uneventful night, equities markets sold off sharply
following a worse than expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report. The bad news
adds to the developing pessimism about the economy and may put pressure on the
Federal Reserve to take make more aggressive monetary moves to boost the
This morningâ€™s Non-Farm Payrolls Report showed a drop of
131,000 jobs in July. This included an increase of 71,000 private payrolls
jobs. Pre-port guesses were for a loss of between 65,000 and 90,000 jobs,
private payrolls were expected to increase by 100,000.
The countryâ€™s unemployment rate held steady at 9.5% after a
call for a rise to 9.6%.
Following the report, the Dollar plunged against most
majors, Treasury markets rose while equity markets fell. Gold is soaring and
crude oil is trading lower.
The jobs report is disappointing but the news is not
earth-shattering. Stock market losses are building ahead of the opening. This
could translate into sharply lower markets by the end of the day.On the other hand, the private sector did add
jobs. Some traders may treat this news as a silver-lining, thereby slowing down
the rate of decline.
September Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes are selling off
on the jobs news. The weaker than expected jobs number is likely to put
pressure on the Fed to renew its quantitative easing program following its next
meeting on August 10. In addition, the market is pricing in lower interest
rates well into 2011.
The Dollar is mostly losing ground to the Euro and the
British Pound. While both the Euro Zone and U.K.
seem to be on path to shore up their economies, the U.S. is still floundering with a
weakening economy and a fresh round of stimuli. The EZâ€™s Trichet sounded
optimistic yesterday, following the European Central Bank policy statement
while the Fedâ€™s Bernanke continues to promote a gloomy outlook.
The weak outlook for the economy is pressuring crude oil.
Traders feel that demand is likely to fall for energy if jobs continue to be
December Gold is trading sharply higher. Money is likely
leaving the paper asset markets and moving into the hard asset gold market. The
weaker Dollar is contributing to the strength in the gold market.
Although the jobs data was not that bearish, investors are
definitely feeling disappointed. Expectations are for the equity markets to
feel downside pressure based on the way money is being allocated between fixed
income, gold and foreign currency markets.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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