Despite a disappointing U.S. jobs report, the USD CAD is
trading sharply higher due to an unexpected decline in the Canadian jobs
market. The news out of Canada
reflects its first job losses of the year.
Today‚Äôs Canadian jobs report showed that the economy lost
9,300 jobs in July while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 8 percent
from 7.9 percent. Analysts had predicted an increase of 15,000 jobs after a
strong gain of 93,200 in June.
The Canadian Dollar fell on the bad jobs data as traders
speculated the weakening U.S.
economy would have an adverse affect on the Canadian economy going forward.
Based on the drop in yields and the rise in Canadian bond
prices, investors are beginning to price in the possibility that the country‚Äôs
recovery from the recession is starting to cool and could encourage the Bank of
Canada to refrain from additional interest rate hikes over the near-term.
The weak U.S.
jobs data has the British Pound in a position to challenge the high for the
week at 1.5967. A move through this level will take out a swing top and a .618
retracement level. This move is likely to trigger stops and an acceleration to
The Euro has resumed its uptrend with the trade through the
last main top at 1.3262. Upside momentum is building which could drive this
market to the major .618 retracement level at 1.3510. The main trend will
remain higher as long as the main swing bottom at 1.3119 holds as support.
Traders are watching the USD JPY this morning. The weak
outlook for the U.S.
economy and the shedding of higher risk assets is putting pressure on the
Dollar/Yen. This morning this pair tested the November 2009 bottom at 84.83. A
break through this level is likely to trigger an acceleration to the downside.
Traders are approaching this level with caution, however, because of the threat
of an intervention by the Japanese government. There may be a technical bounce
when this level is tested, leading to a possible intraday short-covering rally.
Forex Trading News
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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