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Friday April 1, 2005 - 09:08:21 GMT
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Forex Morning Meeting - European Session, 1/4/2005

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil closed around $55.75 yesterday, moving higher but stick within a very narrow 2$ range for now. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed around 10.500, taking profits after the previous day of gains.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.2965 level. Disappointing economic data from the US made the pair try to break above the 1.30 level again, breaking on the upside again the upward trendline from september, 2004. It failed to do so and closed below the trendline, which is still capping the price action for now ahead of the big NFP DATA DUE OUT TODAY 8:30 AM EST / 1:30PM GMT. Moving averages continue to move south threatening on a bearish cross soon, unless price action situates the pair again above the 1.3150/1.32 level. At today’s close we will see things more clear, since NFP usually clearifies the trend. Therefore, we will see if weekly indicators play its role and we see a stronger dollar or we see the resumption of the EUR uptrend.
Moving averages overview: EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2764. Pair is trading below the 2 moving averages (20&50), though they still hold a bullish cross despite they are turning south.
Indicators watch: Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Negative – no signal (flat). Indicators watch-level 2: EUR Neutral.

Gbp/Usd: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8890 level. Pair kept on gaining ground at the same time that its m oving averages kept on getting closer to a bearish cross, which could be negated if the price action regains the 1.91 level. Today’s data will definitely paint a much clear picture for the near future on the pair.
Moving averages overview: GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8580. Pair is below both moving averages now.
Indicators watch: Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Negative – no signal (flat). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Neutral-Negative.

Usd/Chf: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1960 level. Unchanged with respect to yesterday’s levels, awaiting today’s data as the other majors are. Moving averages getting closer to a bullish cross, but definitely we will have to wait for the price action after the NFP number to confirm that event and the general bullish view on the greenback that we can see from weekly indicators (remember the weekly bearish signals we saw and talked about in the nzd/usd and bullish on usd/cad a few weeks ago).
Moving averages overview: USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2072. Pair is above both moving averages now.
Indicators watch: Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): USD Positive - no signal – (flat). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Positive.

Eur/Gbp: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6870 level. It continues to slide down even though the bullish cross remains. Its downmove was halted just ahead of the strong 0.6850 support, so we could see some buying action here, but also note there have been many “touches” to that support, therefore a break of it could lead to a big selloff.
Moving averages overview: pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6865 today. Pair is on a bullish cross by the 2 moving averages now.
Indicators watch: Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Neutral. Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral.

Indicators watch-Level 1: Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2: Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.

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