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Friday August 6, 2010 - 15:21:47 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

Friday, August 06, 2010 11:16:20 AM

 US Market Update

Dow -140 S&P -16.8 NASDAQ -34

***Economic Data***
- (CA) Canada July Net Change in Employment: -9.3K v 12.5Ke; Unemployment Rate: 8.0% v 7.9%e; Full Time Employment Change: -139.0K v 48.9K prior; Part Time Employment Change: +129.7K v 44.2K prior
- (BR) Brazil July IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.6%e
- (CL) Chile July
CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.3%; CPI Ex Perishables & Fuel M/M: 0.6% v 0.6%e
- (US) July Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: -131K v -60Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: +71K v +90Ke; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +36K v +10Ke
- (US) July Unemployment Rate: 9.5% v 9.6%e

- (US) July Avg Hourly Earning 0.2% v 0.1%e; Avg Weekly Hours: 34.2 v 34.1e
- (CA) Canada July Ivey Purchasing Managers Index: 54.0 v 55.5e
- (UK) July NIESR GDP Estimate: 0.9% v 1.1% prior

- The US payrolls data is the story this morning, with risk aversion picking up noticeably following the report. The headline non-farm payrolls decline was more than twice the expected amount, although the government letting census workers go comprises a good part of that gain. Private gains were well below expectations, and less than one-third of commentators' estimate of the 200K new jobs a month needed to cut unemployment rate. The steep revisions to the back-month figures for both non-farm payrolls and private payrolls are further cause for concern. In the wake of the data, PIMCO's Bill Gross said that he believes 7% is the expected low point for unemployment under 'new normal' scenario. The focus now shifts to the Fed: the FOMC has a scheduled rate decision next Tuesday afternoon, and many commentators wonder whether today's data could force Bernanke to act. Money is flowing into US Treasury markets once again. The 10-year yield dropped to its lowest levels in more than year at 2.82% while front month futures contracts continue to make lifetime contract highs across the curve. The 2-year briefly tested 0.5% for the first time ever and German government bond yields are at or near all time lows. Front-month crude is ticking lower, with the front month contract right around $81. Traders are also bidding up gold which is back above $1210, up 1% on the session.

- AIG racked up another big net loss, of $2.7B, in the second quarter, although the firm reported EPS of $1.99 on an adjusted basis. The company's various insurance operations continue to operate profitably. CEO Benmosche confirmed that the company is holding talks with the Treasury and the NY Fed in order to facilitate the government exit from its 80% stake in the crippled firm. Shares of
AIG are up 4%. In other financial news, Brookfield Asset Management missed earnings expectations by a wide margin. Shares of BAM are down nearly 2%.

- Auto parts supplier Magna crushed analysts' consensus estimates in its Q2 report, boosting its revenue by more than 60% y/y. Fertilizer firm CF Industries missed expectations after taking into account of merger and integration costs associated with acquiring Terra Industries. Revenue was a bit above par. CF's outlook is favorable for fall volume in
North America due to likely early harvest and strong projected 2011 plantings.

- In consumer sector news, shares of Kraft are up three percent and heading higher after the company beat expectations and affirmed its full-year earnings guidance. Quarterly losses at Live Nation were an order of magnitude greater than expected, citing a weak summer concert season. The company warned that the concert business would not be getting any better later in the year. LYV is down 2%. Activision Blizzard's revenue in Q2 was below par, though earnings met expectations. The company reiterated its 2010 outlook, although its guidance for Q3 was very soft. ATVI is down 5%.

- Private employment in the
US may have seen its seventh straight month of growth but the overall July payrolls report illustrated a sluggish US economy. Dealers are now starting to believe that the Fed might be on hold for years to come. The greenback was broadly lower, hitting multi-month lows against the euro, pound and yen pairs. Risk aversion sentiment overtook other markets with European equities reversing from earlier gains and spot gold climbing to three-week highs above the $1,205/oz level.

***Looking Ahead***
15:00 (US) Jun Consumer Credit: -$5.6Be v -$9.1B prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes



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