User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday August 6, 2010 - 15:27:41 GMT
BHF-Bank - www.bhf-bank.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

FX Briefing - US labour market report sends dollar to new lows (BHF)

FX Briefing 6 August 2010

Highlights

ECB sees improvements in economy and financial markets

Job cuts in US public sector outnumber increase in private sector jobs.

FOMC leaves monetary policy on hold

 

US labour market report sends dollar to new lows

 

Market participants’ assessment of the economic outlook, and of course the direction of monetary policy (the Open Market Committee is holding its next meeting on Tuesday) will probably be influenced by the US labour market figures, which were published today. Beforehand, markets had been bracing themselves for a disappointment. They were particularly worried that the increase in private sector jobs, which had only been moderate as it was, might have ground to a halt, forcing the Fed to resort to more quantitative easing.

 

Thus the dollar’s slide continued this week: the ICE US Dollar Index Futures fell below its 200- day moving average. By mid-day on Friday, the euro had gained almost 2 cents against the dollar, rising to just under 1.32, and rose to over 1.33 after the release of the US employment data. The dollar also fell against the yen, which climbed to an 8-month high of 85.15. Only the Swiss franc was as weak as the dollar this week. EUR-CHF rose from 1.35 at the end of last week to over 1.38 – despite signs that the SNB was selling some of its bloated foreign currency reserves.

 

The July US labour market data were indeed disappointing: employment declined by a total of 131,000. Although new jobs in the private sector rose by 71,000, this pales to insignificance compared with the 252,000 job cuts in the public sector, which far outnumbered the Census-related job losses (143,000). The significant downward revision of the June figures by almost 100,000 to –221,000 also had a negative effect. Here the additional job cuts were divided evenly between the public and the private sector.

 

Nevertheless, we are still not expecting the FOMC to send out any new monetary policy signals on Tuesday. The Fed is likely to maintain its expectations of a moderate recovery with a gradually improving labour market, but is likely to emphasise the risks and uncertainties a bit more than in June. Otherwise, the committee will probably merely reiterate its intention of maintaining its exceptionally expansionary monetary policy for an extended period.

 

On the whole, we are not expecting the other economic data due to be released next week to bring any unpleasant surprises. The US trade balance deficit will probably have widened again in June, but this information is actually already contained in the Q2 GDP figures. Eurozone Q2 GDP data, released next Friday, could have a positive impact on the euro. Here expectations are quite high, however. And furthermore, not even the ECB’s more hawkish comments have been able to boost the euro much recently.

 

ECB Council: some improvements

 

As expected, the ECB governing council meeting on Thursday did not bring any major surprises. The central bank stated that it expected GDP to grow at a moderate and uneven pace. A few minor changes in the statement suggest, however, that the ECB is at least toying with the idea of reverting to its original strategy of a gradual exit from unconventional measures in September. At the end of April, the ECB had, for the first time since the Lehman collapse, offered a 3-month variable-rate tender, but had then reverted to fixed-rate tenders with full allotment because of the escalation of the debt crisis.

 

At the press conference after the meeting, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet said that economic activity in the euro area had expanded faster than expected; the second quarter had been very good. It looked as though the pace of growth might be slightly slower in the third quarter than in Q2, but it could still exceed expectations. It is also striking that the statement no longer talks of “high uncertainty” but merely of uncertainty. This is in direct contrast to Fed statements, which have seen an increase in growth risks recently.

 

Mr Trichet’s assessment of the financial market situation is also cautiously positive: he sees a significant improvement in government bonds; the development of money market rates shows that the situation is normalising. The bank stress tests were an important step towards restoring confidence and had confirmed the resilience of the banking system. Furthermore, Mr Trichet mentioned the joint review carried out by the EU Commission, the IMF and the ECB, which said that Greece’s fiscal consolidation efforts had got off to a strong start. He put the weaker Bank Lending Survey results down to the fact that the survey had been taken at a bad time.

 

We see several signs indicating that the ECB will revert to its exit strategy in September. Long-term refinancing operations could well be offered as variable-rate tenders again in October. That would presumably raise the costs of obtaining longer-term liquidity significantly above the refinancing rate. Furthermore, the overnight rate would probably continue to approach the refinancing rate, when three long tenders (12, 6, and 3 months) totalling €225bn mature at the end of September, and the excess liquidity is likely to be reduced further.

 

Stephan Rieke +49 69 718-4114

 

Economics Department

+49 69 718-3642

volkswirtschaft@bhf-bank.com

Foreign Exchange Trading

devisenhandel@bhf-bank.com

Matthias Klein

+49 69 718-2175

Matthias Grabbe / Klaus Näfken

+49 69 718-2146 / -2683

 

This report has been prepared by BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies (together "BHFBANK Group") solely for the information of its clients.

 

The information and opinions in this document are based on sources believed to be reliable and acting in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by any member of the BHF-BANK Group as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and recommendations are given in good faith but without legal responsibility and are subject to change without notice. The information does not constitute advice or personal recommendation, for which the duty of suitability would be owed, but may facilitate your own investment decision. Moreover, you should seek your own advice as to the suitability of an investment matter mentioned herein. Investors are reminded that the price of securities and the income from them can go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment or a market is not necessarily indicative for future results.

 

This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete, and this document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy the securities mentioned in it.

 

BHF-BANK Group and its officers and employees may have a long or short position or engage in transactions in any of the securities mentioned in this document, or in any related securities.

 

This publication must not be distributed in the United States.

 

This document is published by us in German and English only. Publications in other languages have not been authorised by us.

 

© 2010 BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft

All rights reserved. Please mention source when quoting from it.

 

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 20 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Fri-- 12:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI. Top economic indicators.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Fri-- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105