The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3335
level and was supported around the $1.3155 level. The common currency reached its strongest
level since 3 May of this year as dealers reacted to weaker-than-expected U.S.
economic data that evidenced a worsening U.S. labour market at the end of the
second quarter and beginning of the third quarter.July non-farm payrolls were twice as bad as
expected, printing at -131,000, and June‚Äôs result was downwardly-revised from
-125,000 to -221,000.The unemployment
rate was unchanged at 9.5% and July average hourly earnings were up 0.2% m/m
and 1.8% y/y.Other data saw July
average weekly hours worked tick higher to 34.2 from 34.1.One bright spot saw 71,000 new private jobs
created and 36,000 new manufacturing jobs created but the overall result was
considerably worse and will receive due attention from Federal Open Market
Committee policymakers when they convene next week.Most traders believe the Fed will keep rates
unchanged but there is a possibility that officials could allude to revisiting
some credit easing programs to bolster an economy that is decelerating.Many dealers do not believe the Fed will
return to outright asset purchases at this time.One possibility next week is that the Fed may
decide to reinvest some of the proceeds it receives from maturing mortgages it
owns back into the market as a way to ease policy further.Others believe the Fed will resort to buying
U.S. Treasuries to keep a lid on market rates.Other data released today saw June consumer credit come in at ‚ÄďUS$ 1.3
billion from the previous result of ‚ÄďUS$ 5.3 billion.U.S. investment banking giant Goldman Sachs
today downgraded its economic forecasts for 2011 in response to recent economic
activity.In eurozone news, German June industrial production was off 0.6%
m/m and up 10.9% y/y while the French June trade deficit narrowed to -‚ā¨3.8
billion.The European Central Bank
yesterday voted to keep monetary policy unchanged and is expected to keep rates
on hold for some time.ECB member Bini
Smaghi said he does not see deflation in the ‚Äúnear future.‚ÄĚEuro offers are cited around the US$
The yen appreciated
vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¬•85.00
figure and was capped around the ¬•86.15 level. Traders continued to drive the pair lower,
testing the psychologically-important ¬•85.00 figure that has been rumoured for
weeks to be an area that Japanese monetary authorities want to protect through
yen-selling intervention.There was no
chatter after the pair tested the level that official bids were seen but
dealers were clearly unwilling or unable to push the pair below the
figure.Bank of Japan‚Äôs Policy Board
convenes next week and is not expected to alter monetary policy.Many BoJ-watchers believe the central bank
will eventually be forced by the government to purchase more assets to counter
Japan‚Äôs deflation problem.Japan‚Äôs
economy is plagued by a strong yen, weak final private demand, and deflation
and the Japanese government‚Äôs ability to enact fiscal stimulus is limited by
its massive national deficit.It was
reported overnight that July official reserve assets increased to US$ 1.063
trillion while the June leading index and coincident index improved to 98.9 and
101.3, respectively. Japanese
authorities are expected to increase their verbal intervention and associated rhetoric
early next week.The Nikkei 225 stock index
lost 0.12% to close at ¬•9,642.12.U.S.
dollar bids are cited around the ¬•85.30 level.The euro moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency
tested offers around the ¬•113.70 level and was supported around the ¬•112.55
level.The British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested bids
around the ¬•135.45 level while the Swiss
franc moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¬•82.40 level.
In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7686 in the
over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7714. People‚Äôs Bank of China reported there is no
reason for major fluctuations to the yuan‚Äôs exchange rate.PBoC absorbed US$ 295 million in liquidity
from the money markets this week.Data
to be released next week include July producer prices, July consumer prices,
July retail sales, and July industrial production.
British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.5995 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5840 level.Dealers stopped just short of testing the
psychologically-important US$ 1.6000 figure following the weak U.S. labour
data.Many data were released in the
U.K. today.July producer price
inflation input was off 1.0% m/m and up 10.8% y/y and July PPI output prices
were up 0.1% m/m and 5.0% y/y at the headline level and up 0.2% m/m and 4.7%
y/y at the core level.Additionally,
June industrial production was off 0.5% m/m and up 1.3% y/y and June
manufacturing production was up 0.3% m/m and 4.1% y/y.Also, the July NIESR GDP estimate came in at
+0.9%, down from the revised prior print of +1.1%.Bank of England‚Äôs Monetary Policy Committee
kept interest rates unchanged yesterday, as expected, and the Bank‚Äôs quarterly
inflation report will be released next week.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5640 level.The
euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers
around the ¬£0.8335 level and was supported around the ¬£0.8290 level.
franc appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0330 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0505 level. Data released in Switzerland today saw the
July unemployment rate tick lower to 3.6% from the prior level of 3.7%.Data to be released next week include the
July SECO consumer confidence index and July producer and import prices.Swiss finance minister Merz will retire in
October.S&P withdrew its short-term
ratings of ‚ÄúAAA/A-1+‚ÄĚ on Swiss National Bank on account of the lack of rated
debt outstanding.Swiss National Bank
reported this week that its foreign reserves declined for a second consecutive U.S.
dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.The
euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids
around the CHF 1.3745 level while the
British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around
the CHF 1.6510 level.
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Mon 23 July 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales Tue 24 July 2018 AFlash PMIs Wed 25 July 2018 A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 26 July 2018 AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Durable Goods Fri 27 July 2018 AA 12:30 US- GDP A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan
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