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Friday April 1, 2005 - 10:31:04 GMT
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FOREX: US OPEN MARKET POINTS 04-01-05

Euro Stays Buoyant Ahead of the NFP

For the second night in a row the euro is ignoring weak European data as traders zero in on the upcoming Non Farm Payroll report from the US due 13:30 GMT. European Manufacturing PMI data was weaker than expected across the board with Italian PMI slipping to 49.1 (below the 50.0 expansionary level). Plagued by the usual culprits of high oil and strong euro European manufacturers suffered a setback in February as New Orders component decreased materially falling nearly 2 pointy in the EZ-wide PMI report. The FX market. however roundly ignored the data rallying the euro to session highs of 1.2976 as dealers prepared for US employment figures.

Yesterday’s US eco data only added to the confusion as weekly jobless claims rose to a monthly high of 350K but the Chicago PMI saw a jump to 69.2 from 60.5 indicating possible strength in corporate demand. The Bloomberg consensus estimate has been consistently lowered as the week progressed. Starting at 225K on Monday it went to 219K yesterday and presently stands at 213K, only 2K higher than the latest Goldman Sachs/ Deutsche Bank derivatives auction forecast. Venturing even farther afield we see that the Tradesports.com contract is only pricing in 25% chance of greater than 250K result. The general rule of thumb for today’s NFP seems to coalesce around the 200K figure. If the number prints above that value it should be supportive for the dollar, below and the euro bulls are likely to push the pair above 1.3000 figure. Finally on the off chance that NFPs report materially higher (above 250K) the dollar longs may be able to resume their rally in earnest, especially because our latest positioning reading indicates that more traders are leaning to the buy side in the EUR/USD and would be vulnerable to a sharp sell-off.

Turning for a moment to Japan, the quarterly TANKAN survey of Large Manufacturers was a major disappointment printing at 14 versus expectations of 23. The reading was the lowest value of the year and again underscored the structural problems of the export-driven Japanese economy. Yet the USD/JPY traded off the session highs as dealers positioned for the NFPs. Furthermore, as we’ve noted before, the Japanese economy doesn’t suffer from anything that can’t be cured by lower than $50/bbl oil prices. As we enter the seasonally slower time for the oil markets, FX traders may be anticipating that fact and will be reluctant to sell the yen lower barring additional bearish data.




FX Spot Overnight

- EUR above 2950 awaiting NFPs
- JPY trades to 107.60 on Japanese poor TANKAN results but retraces some losses
- GBP steady at 8860 as PMI in-line
- CHF below 1.2000 awaiting own PMI and NFP





Upcoming Events

- 13:30 GMT – (08:30 AM EST) CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index Mar Expected 49.7 Previous 47.9
- 13:30 GMT – (08:30 AM EST) USD Unemployment Rate Mar Expected 5.3% Previous 5.4%
- 13:30 GMT – (08:30 AM EST) USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m Mar Expected 0.2% Previous 0.0%
- 13:30 GMT – (08:30 AM EST) USD Average Hourly Earnings y/y Mar Expected 2.5% Previous 2.5%
- 13:30 GMT – (08:30 AM EST) USD Change in Non farm Payrolls Mar Expected 219K Previous 262K
- 13:30 GMT – (08:30 AM EST) USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Mar Expected 7K Previous 20K
- 13:00 GMT – (08:30 AM EST) USD Average Weekly Hours Mar Expected 33.7 Previous 33.7
- 14:45 GMT – (09:45 AM EST) USD University Of Michigan Confidence (Mar F) Expected 92.5 Previous 92.9
- 15:00 GMT – (10:00 AM EST) USD Construction Spending m/m Feb Expected 0.6% Previous 0.7%
- 15:00 GMT – (10:00 AM EST) USD ISM Manufacturing Mar Expected 55.0 Previous 55.3
- 15:00 GMT – (10:00 AM EST) USD ISM Prices Paid Mar Expected 65.9 Previous 65.5
USD Total Vehicle Sales Mar Expected 16.6M Previous 16.3M
USD Domestic Vehicle Sales Mar Expected 13.2M Previous 13.0M



 

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08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
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co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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