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Monday August 9, 2010 - 12:48:48 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 09/08/2010
ForexPros Daily Analysis
August 09, 2010
Analysis: Nonfarm Productivity
The Nonfarm Productivity measures
the annualized change in the average
productivity level of US workers when
producing goods and services,
excluding the farming sector. The Nonfarm
Productivity is calculated by
dividing the GDP by the number of hours worked.
Growth in Nonfarm
Productivity is usually seen as a sign of a healthy
A drop in Labor Productivity indicates inflation - since it's
a rise in wages. It can be quite volatile. A higher than
should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a
lower than expected
reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
predict a future reading of 0.10%.-
The Euro broke the resistance specified in Friday's report
successfully reached the first suggested target 1.3311, reaching
level in more the 3 month in the Dollar-aftermath which followed
out of the US monthly employment report. Technically, what is
important is that we came close on Friday to a very important trend
and we are still around it: the trend line rising from June 29th low
hourly the chart, which is running at 1.3194. Therefore, we should keep
& mind open today, and consider all scenarios, and keep separate
plans ready. If we test the above mentioned trend line, it will be
single most important technical to start the week with. As we said,
line is at 1.3194, and should not be broken in order to keep the
outlook positive. But before we get ahead f ourselves, there is
important support at 1.3265, if broken we will target a test of the
mentioned line. And if it is also broken, we will witness a strong drop
1.3118 at the very least. On the other hand, short term resistance is
1.3306, and it is the key for more gains. If we break it, we will
1.3383 & 1.3442. When approaching such an important trend line,
following move is usually massive, whether it is broken or it manages
reverse the direction. That is why we will focus our attention on this
until it is broken to the downside, or the price shoots up very far
* 1.3265: short term 38.2% Fibonacci.
1.3194: the rising trend line from Jun 29th low, the most important
* 1.3118: Aug 5th low.
1.3306: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from Friday's top.
* 1.3383: Mar 31st
* 1.3442: Feb 19th important
The Dollar/Yen broke the
support specified in Friday's report 85.74, and
dropped to a new yearly low
at 85, only 19 pips above the 15 year low we
have seen in November 09! With
this, the falling wave has successfully
managed to reach yet another target,
but what are the next targets? In the
attached chart, which is a weekly one,
we can see the falling channel from
Sep 07 top. Although the bottom of this
channel is very far away, and is
just above 74, but there is an interesting
trend line inside it, combining
the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09.
This line is around 82.65
currently, providing us with a perfect target for
this dropping wave, since
we still expect, as we did before, that it will
dive below 84.81. Therefore,
we expect the price to reach this target, and as
we do, we also realize that
the limited volatility of this pair indicates
that this will take some time.
As for the short term, the support is at
85.31, and breaking it would
indicate that we are already moving lower with
the objective of breaking
84.81, and reaching lows not seen in 15 years. This
break will target 83.87
& at a later time 82.65. The resistance is at
85.89, and if broken, the
price will continue its bounce, targeting 86.58
* 85.31: Aug 4th low.
Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86,
the wave which started at 88.10.
* 82.65: the trend line combining the
monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09,
on the weekly
* 85.89: the falling trend line from Jul
28th high on intraday charts.
* 86.58: the retest level for the rising trend
line which combines the lows
of Jul 16th & 22nd.
* 87.49: Jul 29th
---Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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