The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3235
level and was capped around the $1.3305 level. The common currency has gained about 6% from
four-year lows in June amid slowing U.S. economic activity.Many banks are pushing back their forecasts
for eventual European Central Bank monetary policy tightening with some eyeing
late 2011 or early 2012 as to when policy could begin to be normalized.German 10-year bond yields are near a record
low as most traders expect the ECB to remain on hold and the Federal Reserve to
possibly signal it may resume asset purchases in some capacity.Three-month U.S. Libor fell to 0.404%, its lowest
level since 6 May, while three-month Euro Libor was unchanged around
0.834%.ECB member Paramo called on Spanish
lenders to strengthen bank capital and ECB member Orphanides said there is ‚Äúno
urgency‚ÄĚ to begin raising rates.In
contrast, ECB‚Äôs Quaden said the ECB ‚Äúneeds to be more attentive on inflation.‚ÄĚData released in the eurozone today saw
August Sentix investor confidence improve sharply to 8.5 from the prior reading
of -1.3.Also, the German June trade
balance improved to ‚ā¨14.1 billion and the June current account expanded to ‚ā¨12.9
billion.Other data saw French July Bank
of France business sentiment steady at 101.In U.S. news, the Federal
Open Market Committee will release its interest rate decision tomorrow and
policymakers are expected to keep the federal funds rate target unchanged at
0.25%.The big question on traders‚Äô
minds is whether or not the Fed will signal a resumption of its credit
expansion programs.Dealers are focused
on the possibility the Fed will reinvest proceeds from maturing assets back
into the market to keep a lid on market interest rates rather than keeping cash
on its balance sheet. Recent U.S.
economic activity has slowed or worsened and the Fed‚Äôs biggest task will be to
reduce the U.S. unemployment rate.Data
to be released in the U.S. tomorrow include Q2 non-farm productivity, Q2 unit
labour costs, and June wholesale inventories.Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.3505 level.
The yen depreciated
vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¬•85.75
level and was supported around the ¬•85.30 level. The pair continues to trade in the ¬•85 handle,
an area where many dealers believe Japanese monetary authorities will intervene
to prevent the yen from surging further.Others, however believe Japanese authorities are pleased with improving
domestic demand and an export-led recovery and will not feel forced to
intervene around these levels.Former
Bank of Japan Assistant Governor Hirano warned ‚ÄúIf the pace of the yen‚Äôs rise
is too fast, Japan may try to check it by showing its readiness to intervene.‚ÄĚ
He added ‚ÄúJapan is unlikely to obtain other nations‚Äô consent for launching a
solo intervention.‚ÄĚ Bank of Japan‚Äôs Policy Board convened overnight to discuss
monetary policy and is not expected to alter policy when its decision is
announced tonight.Government official
Hiraoka said the central bank cannot counter deflation alone, reporting ‚ÄúJapan
must fight an all-out battle to change deflationary sentiment by utilizing
various measures, including fiscal and social welfare policies.‚ÄĚSome government officials are still calling
for the Kan government to impose an inflation target on the central bank.Data released in Japan overnight saw the June
current account total narrow to ¬•1.047 trillion while the June trade balance
nearly doubled to ¬•769.0 billion.Also,
July bank lending was off 1.7%.Data to
be released overnight include the July economy watchers survey and July bankruptcies
data.The Nikkei 225 stock index lost
0.72% to close at ¬•9,572.49.U.S. dollar
bids are cited around the ¬•85.30 level.The euro
moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around
the ¬•113.25 level and was capped around the ¬•113.90 level.The
British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around
the ¬•136.90 level while the Swiss franc moved
higher vis-√†-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¬•82.50 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7684 in the
over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7686. People‚Äôs Bank of China set the yuan‚Äôs
reference rate at its strongest level since the currency peg was ended in July
2005.There is talk that a Chinese
government commitment to energy reduction may reduce industrial output growth
in the near term.Chinese exports data
will be released overnight and could show exports growth decelerated to 35%
last month.Former PBoC Deputy Governor
Wu said China should not introduce additional stimulus measures.
British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.5995 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5930 level.Bank of England is expected to reduce its
U.K. economic growth projections and increase its inflation forecast.The BoE Quarterly Inflation Report will be
released on Wednesday and will likely trim the Bank‚Äôs May forecast of 3.4%
economic growth for 2011 and 3.6% growth for 2012.There is talk the Bank could reduce its
projections by up to a full percentage point.Data to be released in the U.K. overnight include the BRC July retail
sales monitor and July RICS house price balance.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5640
level.The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single
currency tested bids around the ¬£0.8295 level and was capped around the ¬£0.8335
franc depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.0415 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0370 level. Data to be released in Switzerland tomorrow
include July SECO consumer confidence followed by July producer and import
prices on Friday.Data released in
Switzerland last week saw the July unemployment rate tick lower to 3.6% from
the prior level of 3.7%.S&P last
week withdrew its short-term ratings of ‚ÄúAAA/A-1+‚ÄĚ on Swiss National Bank on
account of the lack of rated debt outstanding.U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.The
euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids
around the CHF 1.3760 level while the
British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers
around the CHF 1.6620 level.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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