On Monday the Dollar rose close to 1% against the Swiss
Franc. The current chart formation suggests the construction of a possible
support base. The low end of the support appears to be 1.0400 to 1.0393. The
main trend will change up on the daily chart on a trade through the last swing
top at 1.0640.
The U.S. Dollar traded higher ahead of tomorrow‚Äôs FOMC
meeting. In what was probably position squaring ahead of the Fed meeting; the
Dollar posted gains against all majors. The biggest gain coming versus the
Swiss Franc. The lack of fresh economic news following Friday‚Äôs disappointing
Non-Farm Payrolls Report was most likely a contributing factor to the Dollar‚Äôs
On Tuesday the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to
consider renewing its quantitative easing program by reintroducing its purchase
of government bonds and mortgages. Some believe, however, that the Fed is only
going to consider extending its monetary policy rather than making an actual
change. Either way, investors will be keying in on the language used by the Fed
in its policy statement.
Look for the Dollar to gain over the short-run if the Fed‚Äôs
remains firm in its policy statement. Any softening in the Fed‚Äôs tone will put
pressure on the Greenback.
The U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar traded flat as traders are
still trying to sort out last Friday‚Äôs surprise rise in Canadian unemployment.
With the U.S.
and Canadian economies linked closely, tomorrow‚Äôs Fed meeting is expected to
heavily influence the direction of the Loonie. Any attempt at a short-term fix
by the Fed is likely to be bullish for the Greenback. If the Fed decides to
take a ‚Äėwait and see‚ÄĚ attitude then look for the U.S. Dollar to weaken.
The latest talk in Canada which may help hold the
currency in a range is that the economy is cooling which could mean the Bank of
Canada will refrain from an interest rate hike at its next meeting on September
The Euro broke on profit-taking on Monday. Technically, the
Euro traded in an inside range with a lower close. A downtrending angle from
the November top at 1.5144 is helping to stop the advance. The uptrend is still
intact, but a break through 1.3119 will turn the main trend down.
For the fourth time in a week the British Pound failed to
gain upside momentum when it crossed over a Fibonacci retracement level at
1.5967. The main trend is still up, but a break through 1.5819 will turn the
main trend down. The failure to breakout over the Fib level could be an
indication that the rally is running out of steam, but because of the low
volume, the weakness may have been profit-taking. A close over this level is
likely to trigger an acceleration to the upside.
Continue to look for the Forex markets to trade in tight and
narrow ranges until the Fed‚Äôs announcement Tuesday afternoon. It looks as if
Bernanke has enough votes to implement a dovish strategy but depending on how
the committee assesses the recent economic data, the FOMC may hint at future
changes in monetary policy while evaluating fresh data on a month to month
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