equity markets rose on Monday in light trading. The upside bias may have been
triggered by investors expressing optimism that the Fed will take positive
steps toward jumpstarting the economy after several weeks of sluggishness.
The lack of fresh economic news and Tuesdayâs Federal Open
Market Committee meeting kept investors on the sidelines today, causing
sideways trading for much of the day.
The bias was to the upside in the stock indices but there was
very little commitment in terms of size. Individual stocks drove the indices
higher rather than economic news.
December Gold finished lower after failing near a major 50%
level at $1215.00. If equity markets surge to the upside, then look for gold to
resume the downtrend. Gold and equities are competing for the same investment
dollar at this time.
On Monday the Dollar rose close to 1% against the Swiss
Franc. The current chart formation suggests the construction of a possible
support base. The low end of the support appears to be 1.0400 to 1.0393. The
main trend will change up on the daily chart on a trade through the last swing
top at 1.0640.
The U.S. Dollar traded higher ahead of tomorrowâs FOMC
meeting. In what was probably position squaring ahead of the Fed meeting; the
Dollar posted gains against all majors. The biggest gain coming versus the
Swiss Franc. The lack of fresh economic news following Fridayâs disappointing
Non-Farm Payrolls Report was most likely a contributing factor to the Dollarâs
On Tuesday the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to
consider renewing its quantitative easing program by reintroducing its purchase
of government bonds and mortgages. Some believe, however, that the Fed is only
going to consider extending its monetary policy rather than making an actual
change. Either way, investors will be keying in on the language used by the Fed
in its policy statement.
Look for the Dollar to gain over the short-run if the Fedâs
remains firm in its policy statement. Any softening in the Fedâs tone will put
pressure on the Greenback.
The U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar traded flat as traders are
still trying to sort out last Fridayâs surprise rise in Canadian unemployment.
With the U.S.
and Canadian economies linked closely, tomorrowâs Fed meeting is expected to
heavily influence the direction of the Loonie. Any attempt at a short-term fix
by the Fed is likely to be bullish for the Greenback. If the Fed decides to
take a âwait and seeâ attitude then look for the U.S. Dollar to weaken.
The latest talk in Canada which may help hold the
currency in a range is that the economy is cooling which could mean the Bank of
Canada will refrain from an interest rate hike at its next meeting on September
The Euro broke on profit-taking on Monday. Technically, the
Euro traded in an inside range with a lower close. A downtrending angle from
the November top at 1.5144 is helping to stop the advance. The uptrend is still
intact, but a break through 1.3119 will turn the main trend down.
For the fourth time in a week the British Pound failed to
gain upside momentum when it crossed over a Fibonacci retracement level at
1.5967. The main trend is still up, but a break through 1.5819 will turn the
main trend down. The failure to breakout over the Fib level could be an
indication that the rally is running out of steam, but because of the low
volume, the weakness may have been profit-taking. A close over this level is
likely to trigger an acceleration to the upside.
Continue to look for the Forex markets to trade in tight and
narrow ranges until the Fedâs announcement Tuesday afternoon. It looks as if
Bernanke has enough votes to implement a dovish strategy but depending on how
the committee assesses the recent economic data, the FOMC may hint at future changes
in monetary policy while evaluating fresh data on a month to month basis.
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