Tuesday August 10, 2010 - 03:51:39 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 10-Aug-2010 - 0338 GMT
The US Equities were up yesterday over hopes that the Fed would restart some of its economic stimulus programs in its meeting due later today. The Dow (10698.75) was up 0.45% and the S&P (1127.79) was up 0.55%. We see good chances of a rise on the Dow towards 10800-900 in this week.
The Asians are mixed today. The Nikkei (9622.89) is up 0.53% over improved corporate earnings and weaker Yen while the Shanghai (2648.59) is down 0.90%. In India, the Sensex (18205.46) and the Nifty (5458.35) were up about 0.8% yesterday. The Sensex may move up towards 18500 in the next few days.
Crude (81.20) has bounced back above 81. The Support at 80 is holding and while above 80 there are good chances a rise towards 83-85 in the coming days.
Gold (1200.70) though managing to trade above 1200, is not gaining much strength to see further rise which still keeps the outlook mixed and retaining the chances a break and a downmove below 1200 towards 1190-80 once again.
The Euro (1.3154) has come off sharply from yesterday's high of 1.3308. Support is seen in 1.3130-00 region which if holds might see a bounce back once again towards 13250-3300. A break below 1.3100 might test the 21-DMA Support (cuurently at 1.3009). Dollar-Yen (85.86) is now trading in the Resistance region (85.80-86.00). A break above 86 might take it up towards 86.50-80. Euro-Yen Cross (112.97) might break on the downside of the range (112.70-114), in which it has been trading for some time and might keep the overall downtrend intact. A strong break below 112.70 might see 111-110 in the coming days.
Dollar-Swiss (1.0528) has again honoured the Support at 1.0350 and is currently trading above 1.0500. We see good chances of a rise towards 1.0600 in the coming sessions today. Cable (1.5779) has given in to the Resistance at 1.5970 and may see some more dip towards 1.5700-650 today. Aussie (0.9124) may see some more fall towards 0.9075-50 today.
The Asian currencies are trading weak as compared to yesterday. The Korean-Won is trading near 1167 and USD-SGD is trading near 1.3519. Dollar-Rupee has closed at 46.12/13 and might see a break above the Resistance in 46.15-20 region following the overall strengthness in dollar.
The 3M USD LIBOR was down 2 bps to be set at 0.40%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were up 2 bps and 1 bps each to quote at 0.53% and 2.83% respectively.
The FOMC meet is scheduled for today.
03:49 GMT BOJ Meeting
...Expected 0.10%...Previous 0.10%
08:30 GMT UK July Trade Balance
...Expected $ -7.7 Bln...Previous $ -8.1 Bln
18:15 GMT US FOMC Interest Rate
...Expected <0.25%...Previous <0.25%
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