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Tuesday August 10, 2010 - 09:53:09 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 10/08/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis August 10,
Analysis: Trade Balance
The Trade Balance index measures the
difference in worth between exported
and imported goods (exports minus
imports). This is the largest component of
a country's balance of
Export data can give reflection on the US growth. Imports provide
indication of domestic demand. Because foreigners must buy the
currency to pay for the nation's exports, it may have sizable affect
USD. A higher than expected reading should be taken as
the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be
negative/bearish for the USD. The analysts predict a future reading
In an obvious
concern about the uptrend, yesterday's headline was "The whole
uptrend at stake", and so it happened. The Euro broke the support
in yesterday's report 1.3265, and successfully reached the first
target 1.3195, and even came close to the second suggested target,
only a few steps before hitting it. Technically, what is really
that we have, and without any room for doubt, broken a very
line: the ascending trend line from June 29th low on hourly
the chart, at
1.3194. Therefore, the technical outlook has completely
changes the minute
this line was broken. The Euro is left vulnerable for
severe losses, which we
have seen almost 60 pips of which until the moment.
But we highly doubt that
this is it, and we strongly believe that this pair
will continue moving south
in the shadow of a technical outlook which
changed radically yesterday. Short
term support is at 1.3133, if broken, the
price will drop to 1.3026, then to
a very important medium term level at
1.2961. On the other hand the
resistance is at 1.3233 and only with a break
here that the dark outlook will
be changed! If this happens, a strong jump
to 1.3347 is to be expected, and
may be later we will see 1.3442.
* 1.3133: Asian
session low, which is only 3 pips above a well known support
1.3026: Jul 20th high.
* 1.2961: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move
from 1.2731 to Friday's
& 3-month high.
1.3233: the retest level for the broken trend line.
* 1.3347: May 3rd
* 1.3442: Feb 19th important
The Dollar/Yen did not break
the support or the resistance specified in
yesterday's report yesterday, but
it tried to break the resistance 85.89 a
few hours ago during the Asian
session. With this, we see a continuation of
the correction from Friday's
low, after hitting another, lower target for
the downward wave we have been
talking about for weeks, , but what are the
next targets? In the attached
chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the
falling channel from Sep 07 top.
Although the bottom of this channel is very
far away, and is just above 74,
but there is an interesting trend line
inside it, combining the monthly lows
of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is
around 82.65 currently, providing
us with a perfect target for this dropping
wave, since we still expect, as we
did before, that it will dive below
84.81. Therefore, we expect the price to
reach this target, and as we do, we
also realize that the limited volatility
of this pair indicates that this
will take some time. As for the short term,
the support is at 85. 78, and
breaking it would indicate that we are already
moving lower with the
objective of breaking 84.81, and reaching lows not seen
in 15 years. This
will target 83.87. The resistance is at 86.43, and if
broken, the price will
continue its bounce, targeting 87.49 & the
* 85.78: the bottom of the rising
corrective trend channel on the hourly
* 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 &
a 15-year low.
* 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave
compared to the wave which started at
* 86.43: the top of the rising corrective
trend channel on the hourly chart.
* 87.49: Jul 29th high.
* 88.10: Jul
---Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for
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