European Market Update: China July imports hint of slowdown in global growth; All eyes on the Fed language (Trade the News)
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
European Market Update: China July imports hint of slowdown in global growth; All eyes on the Fed language
***Economic Data*** - (SZ) Swiss July SECO Consumer Confidence: 16 v 18e - (GE) Germany July Final Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1%e - (GE) Germany July Final CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e ; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e - (GE) Germany July Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.3% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 5.3% v 5.1% prior - (FI) Finland Jun Industrial Production M/M: 2.1% v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 14.5% v 11.3% prior - (JP) Japan July Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 144.8% v 143.8% prior - (FR) France Jun Manufacturing Production M/M: -1.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 5.0% v 7.0%e - (FR) France Jun Industrial Production M/M: -1.7% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 5.7% v 7.3%e - (SP) Spain Jun House Transactions Y/Y: 7.0% v 11.9% prior - (DE) Denmark July CPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 1.9%e - (DE) Denmark July CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.9%e - (DE) Denmark Jun Industrial Production M/M: 1.2% v 4.4% prior; Industrial Orders M/M: 23.0% v 13.4% prior - (NO) Norway July CPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.1%e - (NO) Norway July CPI Underlying M/M: -0.6% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.4%e - (NO) Norway July Producer Prices (incl oil) M/M: 0.0% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 18.1% v 11.4% prior - (UK) Jun Visible Trade Balance: -Â£7.4B v -Â£7.8Be; Total Trade Balance: - Â£3.3B v -Â£3.7Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -Â£4.3 v -Â£4.3Be - (UK) Jun DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y: 9.9% v 9.8%e - (RU) Russia July YTD Budget Level (RUB): -538.8B v -439.9B prior; at -2.2% of GDP - Fin Min
Fixed income: - (HU) Hungary Debt Agency sells HUF50B in 3-month Bills; avg yield 5.335 v 5.43% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.7x v 2.4x prior - (UK) DMO sells Â£1.75B in 4.5% 2034 Gilts; avg yield 4.20% v 4.33% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.6x v 1.9x prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ** ***Notes/Observations*** - Equities softer on global growth concerns - Singapore govt believes it could see two quarters of negative sequential growth - China Trade Surplus at 18-month highs putting more political pressure on CNY currency; Imports component lower than expectations - UK July RICS House Price data registers it first decline in a year
- Equities: - As of 5:30am ET Euro Stoxx 50 Index -0.9% at 2,820; DAX Index -1.0% at 6,290; CAC-40 Index -1.1% at 3,737 and FTSE 100 Index -0.6% at 5,376
- The lower than expected rise in China's July imports and cautious comments out of Singapore help put some risk aversion sentiment back on the front burner ahead of the FOMC rate decision. European equities were on the defensive on concerns over the global growth outlook.
- Danish bank, Danske Bank [DANSKE.DE]reported today with net profit and revenues surpassing estimates while net interest came in slightly lower than expected and net trading income showed a sharp decrease on a yearly basis. Following European peers' trend, loan impairment charges had decreased by almost 50% but group was less optimistic in the future as it continued to see challenges ahead and a high level of loan impairment charges. Shares opened down by 2.5%. - German insurer Hannover Re [HNR1.GE] reported a better than expected net income but revenues came in line with estimates. However, net premiums were lower than estimates. Group reaffirmed 2010 outlook but markets were mostly disappointed with the combined ratio which at 99% was worse than estimates of 97.5%. Shares traded down by 1.1% at the open. Heidelberger Druckmaschien [HDD.GE] disappointed as it reported a wider loss than estimates despite narrowing it from the year-ago period. Revenues were higher than estimates but had decreased by 22% on a yearly basis. Incoming orders decreased sharply and company forecasts another significant loss in 2010/11 - French utility name GDF Suez [GSZ.FR] reported overall better than expected revenues and reaffirmed its EBITDA growth forecast for 2010 and 2011. The awaited merger with International Power, which also reported, was announced and shares opened up by 2.6%. - Among notable UK names, Tui Travel [TT.UK] reported disappointing results and an even more disappointing outlook as it expected results for the year to be at the lower end of the range of expectations. CFO was optimistic over the remaining of the summer but expected UK capacity to be flat in 2011 with downside potential. Shares opened down by almost 10%. Intercontinental Hotel [IHG.UK] reported improving results on a yearly basis and an increase in overall Revenue per Available Room. Group's visibility remained limited due to the market uncertainty.
- Speakers: - BOJ Gov Shirakawa spoke at the post rate decision press conference and noted that the BOJ did spend a lot of time discussing FX issues at its policy meeting today. He noted that JPY currency strength could have big impact on the economy. The BOJ must carefully watch the impact of a stronger JPY currency on Japan but stressed that the country's monetary policy was not based only on currency level. He cautioned that Japanese growth might temporarily slow down and needed to carefully examine risk balance for economy but the current assessment was in line with its medium term view. He stated that the US economy was gradually recovering and its recent performance was in line with BOJ's view. He ended the conference noting that no central bank in the developed world targeted currency levels - ECB's Stark commented in a press interview that there were indications that price pressures were limited and no cause for concern that money and credit growth figures would lead to lower inflation. - Poland Central Bank Gov Belka commented in a Polish press interview that he was disappointed with 2011 budget deficit level. He conceded that the present Zloty currency rate was satisfactory and if anything threatened Zloty currency (PLN) at this time was a possibility of a sharp appreciation rather than depreciation. He added that the central bank might intervene in the forex market if such a need emerged - India Planning Panel Deputy reiterated that headline inflation to be approx 6% by year-end. Further monetary policy action to depend on evolving situation but broadly moving on the proper path to control inflation. He added that past central bank and gov't actions to show effect in H2 of current fiscal year.
- Currencies: The USD opened the European session on a firmer footing ahead f the FOMC rate decision later today. The greenback was benefiting from a possible scenario that the Fed would not revive unconventional easing measures at this time and aided by some concerns over the global growth outlook following the release of China trade data and GDP comments out of Singapore. - FX dealers were taking note of BOJ Gov Shirakawa comment at his post monetary policy meeting press conference. The BOJ chief noted that developed nations (G7) central banks do NOT target specific currency levels and this sparked a host of speculation on the currency front. - The Chinese Trade balance would likely reopen political pressure on China to speed up Yuan currency appreciation ahead of the US mid-term elections. To date the USD/CNY price movement has been limited less than one percent appreciation of the CNY since ending a two-year peg to the dollar earlier this summer. - EUR/USD at 1.3170 area as the shifting shifts towards the NY morning and the pair is lower by some 45 pips from its opening level in Asia. GBP/USD off just under 100 pips from its Tokyo open to probe below 1.58 mid-morning. The USD/JPY maintains an 85 handle but well off that 85.00 option barrier level. Dealer chatter circulating that a large 85.00 JPY calls/USD puts have dealt for Thursday amid speculation of barriers expiring at this level and at 84.75 in several yards.
- In the Papers-Geopolitical: - Economists at the German Halle Institute stated that the German economy may rise 2.5% this year as a result of emerging market demand supporting exports. Back on the 13th of April, various leading German economic institutes, including the Halle Institute, commented that the German economy is to expand 1.5% this year v 1.2% prior view. -Financial Times article noted that the EU was expected to propose ways to finance more of its activities through various EU-wide taxes next month. The measures being considered in the EU have concerns about relying on money transfers from some national governments that are troubled. - In Britain, unions might be planning a coordinated general strike during the summer holidays protesting the government's austerity measures. The first strike is planned for the 20th of October, coinciding with the government's Comprehensive Spending Review. In addition, various airport-related workers are to decide by Aug 12th whether to initiate a strike regarding pay concerns. The article mentions that both the Unite union and British Airways expect a strike vote. This follows management comments at the airline last week saying that no resolution was reached in their latest meeting with union.
***Looking Ahead *** - (RU) Russia Jun Trade Balance: $10.9Be v $12.2B prior; Exports: $30.7B v $31.6B prior; Imports: $19.9Be v $19.4B prior - 6:00 (SA) South Africa to sell ZAR1.1B in R203 and ZAR900M in R209 bonds - 7:00 (EU) ECB 1-week term deposit quick tender for â‚¬60.5B - 7:30 (US) July NFIB Small Business Optimism: 88.0e v 89.0 prior - 7:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales - 8:15 (CA) Canada July Housing Starts: 185.0Ke v 192.8K prior (revised from 189.3K) - 8:30 (CA) Canada Jun New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior - 8:30 (US) Q2 Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity: 0.1%e v 2.8% prior; Unit Labor Costs: 1.5%e v -1.3% prior - 8:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Reatil Sales - 10:00 (US) Jun Wholesale Inventories: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior - 10:00 (US) Aug IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: No est v 44.7 prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico May Gross Fixed Investment: 4.2%e v 0.5% prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico July Vehicle Production: 165.0K v 206.2K prior; Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 59.9K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 177.6K - 12:00 (US) Treasury's Barr on financial reform - 14:15 (US) FOMC Rate Decision: Expected to maintain interest rates to 0.25% - 16:30 (US) EIA weekly energy inventories - 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Aug 8th: No est v -50 prior
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.