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Tuesday August 10, 2010 - 09:59:13 GMT
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European Market Update: China July imports hint of slowdown in global growth; All eyes on the Fed language (Trade the News)

Tuesday, August 10, 2010 5:50:23 AM

 European Market Update: China July imports hint of slowdown in global growth; All eyes on the Fed language

 

***Economic Data***
- (SZ) Swiss July SECO Consumer Confidence: 16 v 18e
- (GE) Germany July Final Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1%e
- (GE) Germany July Final CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e ; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
- (GE) Germany July Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.3% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 5.3% v 5.1% prior
- (FI) Finland Jun Industrial Production M/M: 2.1% v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 14.5% v 11.3% prior
- (JP) Japan July Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 144.8% v 143.8% prior
- (FR) France Jun Manufacturing Production M/M: -1.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 5.0% v 7.0%e
- (FR) France Jun Industrial Production M/M: -1.7% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 5.7% v 7.3%e
- (SP) Spain Jun House Transactions Y/Y: 7.0% v 11.9% prior
- (DE) Denmark July CPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 1.9%e
- (DE) Denmark July CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.9%e
- (DE) Denmark Jun Industrial Production M/M: 1.2% v 4.4% prior; Industrial Orders M/M: 23.0% v 13.4% prior
- (NO) Norway July CPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.1%e
- (NO) Norway July CPI Underlying M/M: -0.6% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.4%e
- (NO) Norway July Producer Prices (incl oil) M/M: 0.0% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 18.1% v 11.4% prior
- (UK) Jun Visible Trade Balance: -£7.4B v -£7.8Be; Total Trade Balance: - £3.3B v -£3.7Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -£4.3 v -£4.3Be
- (UK) Jun DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y: 9.9% v 9.8%e
- (RU) Russia July YTD Budget Level (RUB): -538.8B v -439.9B prior; at -2.2% of
GDP - Fin Min

Fixed income:
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency sells
HUF50B in 3-month Bills; avg yield 5.335 v 5.43% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.7x v 2.4x prior
- (UK) DMO sells £1.75B in 4.5% 2034 Gilts; avg yield 4.20% v 4.33% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.6x v 1.9x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM **
***Notes/Observations***
- Equities softer on global growth concerns
- Singapore govt believes it could see two quarters of negative sequential growth
- China Trade Surplus at 18-month highs putting more political pressure on
CNY currency; Imports component lower than expectations
- UK July RICS House Price data registers it first decline in a year

- Equities:
- As of 5:30am ET Euro Stoxx 50 Index -0.9% at 2,820; DAX Index -1.0% at 6,290; CAC-40 Index -1.1% at 3,737 and FTSE 100 Index -0.6% at 5,376

- The lower than expected rise in China's July imports and cautious comments out of Singapore help put some risk aversion sentiment back on the front burner ahead of the FOMC rate decision. European equities were on the defensive on concerns over the global growth outlook.

- Danish bank, Danske Bank [DANSKE.DE]reported today with net profit and revenues surpassing estimates while net interest came in slightly lower than expected and net trading income showed a sharp decrease on a yearly basis. Following European peers' trend, loan impairment charges had decreased by almost 50% but group was less optimistic in the future as it continued to see challenges ahead and a high level of loan impairment charges. Shares opened down by 2.5%.
- German insurer
Hannover Re [HNR1.GE] reported a better than expected net income but revenues came in line with estimates. However, net premiums were lower than estimates. Group reaffirmed 2010 outlook but markets were mostly disappointed with the combined ratio which at 99% was worse than estimates of 97.5%. Shares traded down by 1.1% at the open. Heidelberger Druckmaschien [HDD.GE] disappointed as it reported a wider loss than estimates despite narrowing it from the year-ago period. Revenues were higher than estimates but had decreased by 22% on a yearly basis. Incoming orders decreased sharply and company forecasts another significant loss in 2010/11
- French utility name GDF Suez [GSZ.FR] reported overall better than expected revenues and reaffirmed its EBITDA growth forecast for 2010 and 2011. The awaited merger with International Power, which also reported, was announced and shares opened up by 2.6%.
- Among notable
UK names, Tui Travel [TT.UK] reported disappointing results and an even more disappointing outlook as it expected results for the year to be at the lower end of the range of expectations. CFO was optimistic over the remaining of the summer but expected UK capacity to be flat in 2011 with downside potential. Shares opened down by almost 10%. Intercontinental Hotel [IHG.UK] reported improving results on a yearly basis and an increase in overall Revenue per Available Room. Group's visibility remained limited due to the market uncertainty.

- Speakers:
- BOJ Gov Shirakawa spoke at the post rate decision press conference and noted that the BOJ did spend a lot of time discussing FX issues at its policy meeting today. He noted that JPY currency strength could have big impact on the economy. The BOJ must carefully watch the impact of a stronger JPY currency on
Japan but stressed that the country's monetary policy was not based only on currency level. He cautioned that Japanese growth might temporarily slow down and needed to carefully examine risk balance for economy but the current assessment was in line with its medium term view. He stated that the US economy was gradually recovering and its recent performance was in line with BOJ's view. He ended the conference noting that no central bank in the developed world targeted currency levels
- ECB's Stark commented in a press interview that there were indications that price pressures were limited and no cause for concern that money and credit growth figures would lead to lower inflation.
- Poland Central Bank Gov Belka commented in a Polish press interview that he was disappointed with 2011 budget deficit level. He conceded that the present Zloty currency rate was satisfactory and if anything threatened Zloty currency (PLN) at this time was a possibility of a sharp appreciation rather than depreciation. He added that the central bank might intervene in the forex market if such a need emerged
- India Planning Panel Deputy reiterated that headline inflation to be approx 6% by year-end. Further monetary policy action to depend on evolving situation but broadly moving on the proper path to control inflation. He added that past central bank and gov't actions to show effect in H2 of current fiscal year.

- Currencies: The USD opened the European session on a firmer footing ahead f the FOMC rate decision later today. The greenback was benefiting from a possible scenario that the Fed would not revive unconventional easing measures at this time and aided by some concerns over the global growth outlook following the release of
China trade data and GDP comments out of Singapore.
- FX dealers were taking note of BOJ Gov Shirakawa comment at his post monetary policy meeting press conference. The BOJ chief noted that developed nations (G7) central banks do NOT target specific currency levels and this sparked a host of speculation on the currency front.
- The Chinese Trade balance would likely reopen political pressure on
China to speed up Yuan currency appreciation ahead of the US mid-term elections. To date the USD/CNY price movement has been limited less than one percent appreciation of the CNY since ending a two-year peg to the dollar earlier this summer.
- EUR/USD at 1.3170 area as the shifting shifts towards the NY morning and the pair is lower by some 45 pips from its opening level in
Asia. GBP/USD off just under 100 pips from its Tokyo open to probe below 1.58 mid-morning. The USD/JPY maintains an 85 handle but well off that 85.00 option barrier level. Dealer chatter circulating that a large 85.00 JPY calls/USD puts have dealt for Thursday amid speculation of barriers expiring at this level and at 84.75 in several yards.

- In the Papers-Geopolitical:
- Economists at the German Halle Institute stated that the German economy may rise 2.5% this year as a result of emerging market demand supporting exports. Back on the 13th of April, various leading German economic institutes, including the Halle Institute, commented that the German economy is to expand 1.5% this year v 1.2% prior view.
-Financial Times article noted that the EU was expected to propose ways to finance more of its activities through various EU-wide taxes next month. The measures being considered in the EU have concerns about relying on money transfers from some national governments that are troubled.
- In
Britain, unions might be planning a coordinated general strike during the summer holidays protesting the government's austerity measures. The first strike is planned for the 20th of October, coinciding with the government's Comprehensive Spending Review. In addition, various airport-related workers are to decide by Aug 12th whether to initiate a strike regarding pay concerns. The article mentions that both the Unite union and British Airways expect a strike vote. This follows management comments at the airline last week saying that no resolution was reached in their latest meeting with union.

***Looking Ahead ***
- (RU) Russia Jun Trade Balance: $10.9Be v $12.2B prior; Exports: $30.7B v $31.6B prior; Imports: $19.9Be v $19.4B prior
- 6:00 (SA) South Africa to sell ZAR1.1B in R203 and ZAR900M in R209 bonds
- 7:00 (EU) ECB 1-week term deposit quick tender for €60.5B
- 7:30 (US) July NFIB Small Business Optimism: 88.0e v 89.0 prior
- 7:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 8:15 (CA) Canada July Housing Starts: 185.0Ke v 192.8K prior (revised from 189.3K)
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Jun New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q2 Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity: 0.1%e v 2.8% prior; Unit Labor Costs: 1.5%e v -1.3% prior
- 8:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Reatil Sales
- 10:00 (US) Jun Wholesale Inventories: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior
- 10:00 (US) Aug IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: No est v 44.7 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico May Gross Fixed Investment: 4.2%e v 0.5% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico July Vehicle Production: 165.0K v 206.2K prior; Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 59.9K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 177.6K
- 12:00 (US) Treasury's Barr on financial reform
- 14:15 (US) FOMC Rate Decision: Expected to maintain interest rates to 0.25%
- 16:30 (US) EIA weekly energy inventories
- 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Aug 8th: No est v -50 prior

 

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All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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