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Wednesday August 11, 2010 - 15:24:11 GMT
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Weak China Data, Reaction to Fed Move Driving Equities Sharply Lower

In what may be developing into a series of bad reports like the U.S., China reported more economic weakness overnight, triggering rallies in both the Dollar and the Japanese Yen. The moves into these so-called “safer currencies” suggests that investors are turning risk averse once again, leading to tremendous sell-offs in risky assets.


The September E-mini broke through a combination 50%/uptrending Gann angle formation triggering stops. The main trend is up but the downside momentum is building which could send this index down to the last swing bottom at 1083.50. A break through this level will turn the main trend down on the daily chart with a minimum downside objective of 1065.25.


The flight to safety buying as well as the continued reaction to the Fed move out of mortgages and into long-term debt is triggering a strong rally in the September Treasury Bonds. Despite another Treasury Note auction today and increasing supply, analysts expect demand to remain strong. Investors don’t seem to be paying too much attention to the low yields as the flight out of risky assets is making safety their main concern. Continue to look for the September T-Bonds and T-Notes to push higher with each new low in the stock market.


As mentioned several times during the last couple of weeks, gold and equity traders are competing for the same investment dollar. This means that I expect to see December Gold rally should the weakness continue in the stock market. Gold has been consolidating the past four days slightly below a major 50% price level at $1215.00. A breakout over this level is likely to trigger a further rally to the .618 price level at $1228.00.


It is important to for gold to make an attempt at taking out this level. If buyers don’t begin to step up and buy the metal, it may retreat 50% of the last rally from $1159.30 to $1213.30. This would make $1186.30 the first downside target.


September Crude Oil is back below $80.00. This market is weakening but hasn’t seen the heavy selling pressure yet. The daily chart suggests that there is plenty of room to the downside with $76.29 the next likely downside target. An expected slowdown in global demand is likely to be the catalyst behind the weakness.


The U.S. Dollar is trading sharply lower against most major currencies with the exception of the Japanese Yen. Investor sentiment has shifted away from risk leading to weakness in the commodity-linked currencies. A reduction in the outlook for U.K. GDP is leading to a huge sell-off in the British Pound.


Technically, the Euro main trend is down on the daily chart. Downside momentum is building which is expected to drive this market into an uptrending Gann angle at 1.2816. Ultimately this market is likely to retrace 50% of its recent range to 1.2605.


The main trend is also down in the British Pound. There is minor support at 1.5635. Watch for a technical bounce following a test of this level. The next major downside target is an uptrending Gann angle at 1.5429.


The flight to safety is boosting the Japanese Yen. This market is expected to continue to soar as traders take money from higher risk assets and payback borrowed Yen. Unless the Japanese government actually intervenes, look for more upside. There may be a technical reversal if there is a verbal intervention but this type of action doesn’t work for a very long time.


The Fed set the tone for today’s selling of higher risk assets. Despite efforts to ease into a period of loosening, the Fed may have actually increased the pessimism in the market. The U.S. is a leading economy so the thinking is that if the U.S. economy is cooling off, then it’s just a matter of time before this weakness spreads globally.



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