The euro depreciated sharply vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar
today as the single currency tested bids
around the US$ 1.2865 level and was capped around the $1.3185 level.The common currency extended its three-day
sell-off and has declined more than four big figures this week.The catalyst was yesterdayâ€™s Federal Open
Market Committee statement in which Fed policymakers conceded â€śthe pace of
recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months,â€ť decreasing
demand for higher-yielding and riskier assets.The Fed also announced yesterday that it would keep the size of its
balance sheet unchanged at US$ 2.054 trillion and reinvest proceeds from maturing
bond holdings back into the U.S. Treasury market.Dealers reacted by pushing U.S. Treasury debt
considerably higger today with the yields on 10-year notes and 30-year bonds
reaching 2.68% and 3.92%, respectively.By
leaving a bid in the U.S. government bond market, the Fed hopes to engineer
lower market rates and stimulate business lending, home purchases, mortgage
refinancing, and final private demand.On
balance, the FOMCâ€™s statement yesterday was bearish and a downward trajectory is
expected to continue in market rates.Data
released in the U.S. today saw MBA mortgage applications climb +0.6% while the
June trade balance unexpectedly widened to â€“US$ 49.9 billion from the previous
tally of â€“US$ 42.0 billion.In eurozone news, the European Central
Bankâ€™s August monthly bulletin will be released tomorrow.Data released in France today saw the June
current account narrow to -â‚¬2.7 billion.The ECB lent European commercial banks U.S. dollar funds today for the
first time in more than two months.Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.3505
The yen appreciated
vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ÂĄ84.70
level and was capped around the ÂĄ85.45 level. The pair finally broke below the
psychologically-important ÂĄ85.00 figure and tested its lowest level since June
1995.There was no indication that
Japanese monetary authorities intervened overnight and the yen was considerably
stronger across the board as traders reacted to the Fedâ€™s decision to keep
rates unchanged and shift its credit easing policy to a policy that more
resembles quantitative easing.The Fedâ€™s
admission that the economy is weakening curtailed demand for higher-yielding
assets and saw a sharp move toward flight-to-quality assets and U.S.
Treasuries. Yesterday, Bank of Japanâ€™s
Policy Board kept its monetary policy unchanged today with the unsecured
overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.10%.Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa reported â€śWe are well aware that the
yenâ€™s strength is a downside risk for corporate sentiment.On the other hand, we have to assess the
currencyâ€™s effect on the economy in a well-balanced manner.â€ťMany dealers believe the central bank will
not ease policy further unless the yenâ€™s advances become disruptive and push
the economy back toward a recession.Trade
minister Naoshima was quoted saying it would be difficult for Japan to conduct
unilateral intervention.The central
bank kept its monetary policy assessment unchanged overnight for the third
consecutive month, noting the economy will probably experience a â€śmoderate
recovery.â€ťData released in Japan
overnight saw June machine tool orders up 1.6% m/m and off 2.2% y/y.Also, the July domestic corporate goods price
index was off 0.1% m/m and off 0.1% y/y.Data to be released tonight include July consumer confidence, June
capacity utilization, and June industrial production.The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 2.70% to
close at ÂĄ9,292.85.U.S. dollar bids are
cited around the ÂĄ85.30 level.The euro
moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the
ÂĄ109.75 level and was capped around the ÂĄ112.60 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ÂĄ132.80 level while the Swiss franc moved
lower vis-Ă -vis the yen and tested bids around the ÂĄ80.30 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated
vis-Ă -vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7750 in the
over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.7721. Many data were released in China overnight.
First, the July money supply aggregates evidenced a deceleration in
year-over-year growth.Second, July
producer prices growth slowed to +4.8% y/y while the July consumer price index
jumped to +3.3% y/y from the prior level of +2.9% y/y.Third, July new yuan loans came in at CNY
532.2 billion.Fourth, July retail sales
growth slowed to +17.9% y/y.Fifth, July
industrial production growth decelerated to +13.4% y/y.Former Peopleâ€™s Bank of China adviser Fan Gang
said the yuanâ€™s appreciation will â€śremain gradual.â€ť
British pound depreciated sharply vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable
tested bids around the US$ 1.5625 level and was capped around the US$ 1.5860
level.As expected, Bank of England
released its Quarterly Inflation Report today in which it projected U.K.
inflation will fall well below its 2% inflation target in two years even if
interest rates remain at record lows.BoE cited â€śhighly uncertainâ€ť prospects and it appears likely the
Monetary Policy Committee will keep rates unchanged for some time.BoE revised higher its 2011 inflation
forecast but now estimates 2012 inflation will be around 1.4%.Similarly, economic growth is expected to be
just above 3% in two yearsâ€™ time, down from its estimate of â€śaroundâ€ť 3.6% in its May Quarterly Inflation
Report.BoE Governor King said the Bank
may conduct additional quantitative easing if required and can hold, tighten, or
loosen policy.Data released in the U.K.
today saw July Nationwide consumer confidence decelerate to +56 from the prior
reading of +63.Also, the July claimant
count was unchanged at 4.5% with the net change off 3,800 and the ILO
unemployment measure steady at 7.8%.Additionally, June average weekly earnings were up 1.3% y/y.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5640
level.The euro depreciated vis-Ă -vis the British pound as the single
currency tested bids around the ÂŁ0.8225 level and was capped around the ÂŁ0.8320
franc depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.0615 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0590 level. Data released in Switzerland this week saw the
July SECO consumer confidence measure climb to +16 from the prior reading of
+14.July producer and import prices
data will be released on Friday.Data
released in Switzerland last week saw the July unemployment rate tick lower to
3.6% from the prior level of 3.7%.S&P
last week withdrew its short-term ratings of â€śAAA/A-1+â€ť on Swiss National Bank
on account of the lack of rated debt outstanding.U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF
1.0980 level.The euro depreciated vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc as the single
currency tested bids around the CHF 1.3620 level while the British pound moved lower vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc and tested bids
around the CHF 1.6475 level.
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Mon 19 Feb 2018
00:00 CN, US- Holiday Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A All Day flash PMIs A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 15:30 US- EIA Crude AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes Thu 22 Feb 2018 A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey A 09:30 GB- GDP AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP AA 13:30 CA- CPI
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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