Sunday April 3, 2005 - 12:15:01 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 4th April 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.8831 ... 1.8850 ... 1.8892 ... 1.8923
Support....: 1.8794 ... 1.8755 ... 1.8715 ... 1.8681
Mixed - waiting for breaks
Gains were limited to the 1.8948-75 resistance suggested on Friday and from there a move lower has developed. This has barely been able to retrace much more than 50% of the rally from 1.8590 and thus does not seem to support a strongly bearish view. However, we do need to acknowledge the risk of further losses though will need to see how far these can decline. Our favored view is for the Pound to decline to the 1.8715 and possibly 1.8681 area and thus we should watch this area (and also 1.8651) for any sign of a base forming. Thus a more bullish stance can only be considered on a direct break back above 1.8831 and also the 1.8845-50 pivot resistance. If seen this would bring strength back to 1.8892-1.8923.
The 1.8975 resistance held well and has caused good losses down to the 1.8759 level. While 1.8831 holds we feel the risk is lower for losses below 1.8759 and down to 1.8715 at least with further support at 1.8681 & 1.8651. However, if seen we feel this lower area will hold and support.
Elliott Wave Comments:
4th April 2005
The depth of pullback from 1.8590 appears to cause the directly bearish stance to be less likely. We feel that there is more need for further price development to make the pattern clearer and for now we have placed a Wave [x] label on the 1.8975 peak although we are not 100% happy with that. It is still possible that we see a larger sideways correction and if this is seen then it is possible that we can count the 1.8590 low as Wave [i] and the coming correction (and possibly Friday's 1.8975 high) as Wave [ii]. However, for now we feel it prudent to watch for further price development.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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