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Friday August 13, 2010 - 03:41:10 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 13-Aug-2010 - 0337 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The US Equities fell for the third continuous session yesterday. The increase in weekly jobless claims coupled with disappointing numbers from Cisco added to investor worries. The Dow (10319.95) was down 0.57% and the S&P (1083.61) was down 0.54%. The Dow has an important Support in the region of 10300-50 and a break below it may take it towards 10000-100 in the next few days/weeks.

Asian equities are trading weak today following the third continuous fall on the Wall Street. The Nikkei (9186.32) is down 0.29% and the Shanghai (2573.14) is flat. In India, the markets recovered almost all of their opening losses over strong numbers by the State Bank of India to close flat yesterday. The Sensex (18073.90) and the Nifty (5416.45) closed above their respective Support levels of 18000 and 5400 respectively. The Sensex has an important Support near in the 18000-17800 region. To see the Support on the Sensex, please follow the link below:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/sensexma.shtml#ma

COMMODITIES
Curde (76.20) is continuing with its downmove and witnessed a break and close below the Support at 76 yesterday, as the US initial jobless claims added further downside pressure and pulled down the price. A further dip towards 75 looks likely now. A break below 75 migth pull it further down towards 73.70-50. On the upside Resistance is seen at 80. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/nymexcrudecandle.shtml#candle

Gold (1215.70) has bounced back sharply from yesterday's low of 1198.10 and is now trading strong above 1200. The weak global economic outlook is bring back attention towards this safer asset. A strong break above 1220 might take it further up towards 1250 in the coming days.


CURRENCIES
The Dollar is continuing to trade strong while the Yen has weakend on intervention speculation.

The Euro (1.2850), though has bounced back from yesterday's low of 1.2780 is expected to retain its downside pressure while below 1.2900 and might test its significant Trendline Support at 1.2750. Dollar-Yen (86.10) has risen above 86. The Support in 85.00-84.80 has held very well over the last few days and we might see a test of the 21-DMA Resistance (86.48) today if it continues to trade above 86. The Euro-Yen Cross (110.57) has bounced back from yesterday's low of 109.22. A strong break above 110.80 would confirm a Double-Bottom on the 4-hr chart which would take it further up towards 112 today. Howeve, the broader picture is bearish.

Dollar-Swiss (1.0487) has taken temporary Support near 1.0465 but may see some fall towards 1.0400 today. Aussie (0.9012) may move up towards 0.9050-100 while Cable (1.5634) may see some fall towards 1.5550-00 while below 1.5650.

In Asia, the Korean-Won is trading near 1187 and the USD-SGD has come off from yesterday's high of 1.3668 and is now trading below 1.3600 near 1.3685. Dollar-Rupee has closed at 46.77/78 yesterday. With Support in 46.60-50 region the overall outlook remains bullish for a rise towards 47 in the coming days.


INTEREST RATES
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.38%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were up 3 bps and 4 bps points each to quote at 0.54% and 2.74% respectively.


DATA TODAY
09:00 GMT EU Trade Bal
...Expected -2.3 Bln...Previous -3.0 Bln

09:00 GMT EU GDP Q1 '10 Final
...Expected 0.7%...Previous 0.2%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/eugdp.shtml

12:30 GMT US July Retail Sales
...Expected 0.5%...Previous -0.5%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usretail.shtml

12:30 GMT US May Core CPI (MoM)
...Expected 0.1%...Previous 0.2%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/uscpi.shtml

DATA YESTERDAY
July Australia Labour Force
...Actual 23.5K...Previous 37.4K
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/aulab.shtml

EU July IND Prodn (MoM)
...Actual -0.1%...Previous 1.1%

 

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