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Friday August 13, 2010 - 09:51:23 GMT
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European Market Update: Hong Kong GDP data offsets 'terrific' European growth statistics (Trade the News)

Friday, August 13, 2010 5:45:06 AM

 European Market Update: Hong Kong GDP data offsets 'terrific' European growth statistics


***Economic Data***
- (GE) Germany Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 2.2% v 1.3%e; Y/Y: 4.1% v 2.6%e;
GDP WDA Y/Y: 3.7% v 2.4%e (Faster QoQ growth since unification)
- (FI) Finland July
CPI M/M: -0.5% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.1% v 0.9% prior
- (FI) Finland Jun GDP Indicator: 5.1% v 4.2% prior
- (FI) Finland Jun Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: % v 1.8% prelim
- (FR) France July Consumer Price Index M/M: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.6%e;
CPI Ex Tobacco Index: 119.68 v 119.54e
- (FR) France July CPI EU harmonized M/M: -0.3% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.8%e
- (FR) France Q2 Preliminary Gross Domestic Product Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.5%e ; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.5%e
- (FR) France Q2 Preliminary Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q:0.2 % v 0.1%e ; Wages Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.5%e
- (SP) Spain Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.1%e
- (HU) Hungary Q2 Preliminary GDP Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.9%e
- (HU) Hungary Jun Final Industrial Output M/M: 0.8% v 0.9% prelim; Y/Y: 12.6% v 13.1%e
- (CZ) Czech Q2 Preliminary
GDP Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.3%e
- (AS) Austria Q2 GDP Q/Q: 0.9% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 0.0% prior
- (FI) Finland Jun Current Account: +€640 v -€830M prior
- (SZ) Swiss July Producer & Import Prices M/M: -0.5% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.8%e
- (SW) Sweden Jun Industrial Production M/M: 1.1% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 12.0% v 12.4% prior
- (SW) Sweden Jun Industrial Orders M/M: -2.5% v 2.1% prior; Y/Y: 15.5% v 20.4% prior
- (NV) Netherlands Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.9%e
- (NV) Netherlands Jun Retail Sales Y/Y: 2.1% v 0.5%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Q2
GDP Q/Q: 1.4% v 1.9%e; Y/Y: 6.5% v 6.3%e; Prior month revised lower
- (EU) Euro-Zone Jun Trade Balance: €2.4B v €1.0Be; Trade Balance seasonally adj -€1.6B v -€700Me
- (EU) Euro-Zone Q2 Advanced GDP Q/Q: 1.0% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.4%e (Fastest pace since 2006)
- (PO) Portugal Q/Q: GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.3%e

Fixed income
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €5.87B versus €6.0B indicated in 2015 and 2025 bonds
- Sold €3.5B in 3% Jun 2015 BTP; avg yield 2.63% v 2.85% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.26x v 1.4x prior
- Sold €2.37B in 5% Mar 2025 BTP; avg yield 4.36% v 4.42% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.27x v 1.74 prior
- (IN) India sold total INR120B v INR120B indicated in three tranches
- Sold INR40B in 7.17% 2015 bonds at 7.71% v 7.72%e
- Sold INR50B in 7.80% 2020 bonds at 7.90% v 7.92%e
- Sold INR30B in 8.26% 2027 bonds at 8.39% v 8.42%e

- Friday the 13th has yet to spook the markets today
- Germany, France and overall Euro Zone GDP above expectationsbut can the pace be sustained???
- HK GDP disappoints

- Equities:
- As of 5:35am ET Euro Stoxx 50 Index -0.2% at 2,715; DAX Index -0.4% at 6,110; CAC-40 Index -.2% at 3,612 and FTSE 100 Index unchanged at 5,244
- The European Bourses saw earlier gains evaporate as below q/q HK GDP data (and downward revisions) took out any positive spin from better German, France and Euro Zone GDP results.

- Thyssenkrupp [TKA.GE] reported stronger than expected earnings. Revenues increased by 26% on a yearly basis and order intake raised by 38%. As expected by the market, Thyssenkrupp raised its guidance expecting revenues to increase as opposed to the prior statement when it expected revenues to stabilize to last year's level. EBIT is expected to raise above ?1B in FY10. Shares opened up by 3.3%. German solar name SMA Solar [S92.GE] disappointed in net earnings and revenues for its second quarter. Revenues came in a bit higher for the first half. Company reaffirmed its forecast but noted that electronic components shortage had limited production. Shares are trading down. German-state owned bank Hypo Real Estate Holdings which failed the EU stress test reported a net loss which was narrower than what analysts had expected. Loan loss provisions fell during the quarter but its net trading income was a loss versus a profit of €135M last year. Bank expected loss to persist into FY10.
- Belgian food retailer Delhaize [DELB.BE] disappointed markets with its results. Furthermore the company cut its guidance as it expected tough trading conditions in
Southeast US and a lower outlook in the US inflation. Shares opened down by almost 3%. Lundbeck [LUN.DE] reported higher than expected results and reaffirmed its outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year. Shares opened up by 0.8% following earnings.

- Speakers:
- Swiss National Bank (SNB) reported a H1 2010 loss of CHF2.8B. It confirmed that currency exchange rate losses were CHF14.3B while gold contributed to profits of CHF6.8B in Q2. The stability fund also contributed profit CHF1.3B
- France Fin Min Lagarde stated that Q2 GDP at +0.6% (versus consensus estimates of +0.5% and reaffirmed that
France would achieve current year growth target of +1.4%. She noted that French consumption was holding up but declined to comment of 2011 growth target.
- German Economic Min: Q2
GDP figures support State exit from economic crisis support measures and support continuation of budget consolidation; GDP growth over 2% for 2010 is possible
- the German IFO added even more optimism as it commented that Germany's 2010
GDP growth of 3% was 'within reach'
- German DIHK Chambers of Commerce: Country would not be able to maintain economic growth pace
- Germany IMK Institute raised its 2010 GDP forecast to +2.5-3.0% from 2.0% prior view and cited the "sensationally good" second quarter growth figures. It did note that many risks remained to German economy with fiscal stimulus measures coming to an end
- China official states that Q3 inflation to be approx at current levels (July came in at +3.3%)
- Japan's Ruling party DPJ reportedly seeks to submit a fx action request to the Finance Ministry

- Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Better German and French GDP data helped the EUR/USD to test above the 1.29 level during the early part of the session. However, some doubts persisted that such a positive pace could be maintained during the H2 part of the year as highlighted by comments from the German DIHK Chambers of Commerce.
Germany's QoQ growth was the faster since the country was unified over 20 years ago. EUR/USD saw its initial gains evaporate as the NY morning approached and traded near 1.2840. The JPY currency maintains a steady to firmer tone and the tempo rose a bit when European equities turned negative mid-morning. Dealers noted that a weaker HK GDP reading weighed upon sentiment despite the 'euphoric' European data.

- In the Papers-Geopolitical:
- According to the London Telegraph over one million holders of interest-only mortgages may be hurt by future increases in rates. In the article it is estimated that one million people took out these types of mortgages between 2005 and 2009 during the housing boom.
UK banks and building societies are beginning to show more concern about these types of buyers.
- Following yesterday's decision to strike by
Britain's Unite union, it was announced by UK's Advisory, Conciliation and Arbitration Service (Acas) that there may be discussions during the weekend between the union and BAA to prevent strike from occurring. The union has not yet set a date for planned walkouts. Note that strikes would lead to closure at all six of BAA's airport including Heathrow and Edinburgh.
- It was reported by the Russian Atomic Agency that
Iran's first nuclear power plant will begin commencement on the 21st of August. Russia will begin to load nuclear fuel into the Bushehr Reactor.
- French media reported that the cost of electricity in
France will increase by approximately five to six percent, which may affect about three million households. Though no specific reasons were yet given, back on the 3rd of August, the French government issued a proposal for the rise in household electricity tax of three percent effective the 15th of August.

***Looking Ahead ***
- (PO) Portugal Q2 Labor Costs Y/Y: % v 0.3% prior
- (RU) Russia July Producer Prices M/M: % v 0.3%e; Y/Y: % v 8.8%e
- 8:00 (PD) Poland July CPI M/M: -0.1%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 2.3% prior
- 8:00 (IC) Iceland July Unemployment Rate: No est v 7.6% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Jun New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M: 2.0%e v 0.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) July Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v -0.1% prior; CPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.1%e v prior; CPI NSA: 218.172e v 217.965 prior
- 8:30 (US) July Advance Retail Sales: 0.5%e v -0.5% prior; Less Autos: 0.3%e v -0.1% prior
- 9:55 (US) Aug University of Michigan Confidence: 69.3e v 67.8 prior
- 10:00 (US) Jun Business Inventories: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior
- 15:00 (AR) July Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.8%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 11.2%e v 11.0% prior
- 15:00 (AR) July Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 15.2% prior



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