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Friday August 13, 2010 - 20:16:27 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Curious Trade

 

The Daily Forex View

Forex Analysis


Curious Trade

18:00 GMT (Global-View.com) Aug 13, 2010  Friday was another strange session. The USD continued to press higher despite data. Early on, German 2Q10 was a stronger than expected 2.2% q/q. German quarterly GDP data is not annualized as is the case for the U.S.  The strong German data are being explained away by some as one/off and not being sustainable, The strong German figures gave EZ GDP a lift. Many still worry about the status of the peripheral E-Z participants with the immediate focus on Ireland and Portugal. The EUR rallied on the headline but since has retreated back down to new lows for the day.

The JPY remains a key focus. Today saw another bout of strong verbal intervention by Japanese officials in opposition to a strong JPY A test of the USDJPY 85.00 line was a major event on Wednesday. There was talk of activity in the currency by Kampo (Japan's Postal Savings Bank). Tokyo's line in the sand in USD/JPY reportedly is  85.00, but Its ultimate line could be as low as 80.00.. 

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see Japanese GDP early Monday. In Europe , Eurozone CPI (HICP) data are due. In North America , the Empire PMI, Monthly TIC flows and the NAHB index are slated.

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

  

Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 20:11
EUR 1.2754 -70 JPY 110.07 -9 JPY 134.53 72
GBP 1.5589 11 GBP 81.81 -51 CHF 164.07 41
CHF 1.0525 19 CHF 1.3424 -49 CHF vs.    
JPY 86.30 40       JPY 82.00 23

The EURUSD is now lower on the day and the GBPUSD is up. The EURGBP cross is down. Traders still watch the European sovereign debt situation In the GBP the U.K. new government is politically vulnerable.

The USDCHF is steady and EURCHF is lower. The SNB strong stand in supporting the EUR against the CHF has waned after massive FX losses.. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB. The SNB announced that 1H10 forex losses fell to CHF 2.8bln from CHF 4.0bln in 1Q10. 

The USDJPY is up and the EURJPY cross is unchanged. While Japanese public finances are a mess, analysts point out that most JGBs are owned by Japanese, so Japan is not dependent on foreign investment. The government has been pressed the BOJ to promote growth and favors a lower exchange rate.

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         20:11
CAD 1.0404 -21 AUD 0.8923 -30 Gold 1215 0.30
CNY 6.7941 88 NZD 0.7052 -33 WTI 75.55 -0.23

The risk trade continues to be turned on and off almost daily. As for the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD), they are mixed vs. the USD. The Bank of Canada recently hiked interest rates by 25bps. The BOC sent mixed signals afterwards. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. In Australia, RBA is unlikely to tighten in August. The RBNZ is now in a reduced tightening mode. Oil and gold are lower. Gold is still favored as a refuge from paper money. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

Equities and Bonds are also risk trades. Far East equities closed mostly higher. European bourses were up. U.S. equities are better. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.70%, -5 bps.

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

  

Equities           20:11
NIK 9253 41 DAX 6110 -25 DJIA 10301 -21
HSI 21072 -34 FTSE 5275 9 S&P 1080 -4
SSEC 2607 32 SMI 6294 0 NAS 2175 -14
ASX 4460 59       TSE 11512 -34

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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