The euro depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2745
level and was capped around the $1.2905 level.The common currency continued its sell-off following this weekâ€™s bearish
Federal Open Market Committee policy statement and decision to purchase U.S.
Treasuries.Kansas City Fed President
Hoenig ratcheted up his criticism of the Fedâ€™s policy today, saying â€śIf in an
attempt to add further fuel to the recovery, a zero interest rate is continued,
it is as likely to be a negative as a positive in that it brings its own
unintended consequences and uncertainty.â€ťHoenig added that maintaining a near-zero per cent rate after a year of
expansion â€śgives legitimacy to questions about the sustainability of growth.â€ťHoenig dissented at this weekâ€™s FOMC meeting
and warned â€śmarket participants should not direct policy.â€ťHe also suggested the FOMC should lift the
federal funds target rate to 1% and characerized current economic activity as a
â€śmodest recovery.â€ťData released in the
U.S. today saw the July consumer price index up 0.3% m/m and 1.2% y/y at the
headline level and up 0.1% m/m and 0.9% y/y at the ex-food-and-energy level,
underscoring the very low level of inflation in the U.S. economy.Also, July advance retail sales were up 0.4%
at the headline level and +0.2% at the ex-autos level.Additionally, August University of Michigan
consumer sentiment climbed to 69.6 from the prior reading of 67.8 while June
business inventories were up 0.3%.In eurozone news, data released in the
eurozone today saw the June EMU-16 trade balance grow to â‚¬2.4 billion from the
previous tally of -â‚¬3.3 billion.Also,
EMU-16 Q2 gross domestic product expanded 1.0% q/q and 1.7% y/y.German data released today saw Q2 gross
domestic product up 2.2% q/q and 3.7% y/y while French Q2 GDP was up 0.6% q/q
and 1.7% y/y.Additionally, French Q2
payrolls were up 0.2% q/q and Q2 wages growth decelerated to +0.4%.Other data saw the French July consumer price
index off 0.3% m/m and up 1.7% y/y and was off 0.3% m/m and up 1.9% y/y at the
harmonized level.The Italian government
today auctioned off 15-year government bonds at a low bid-to-cover ratio of
1.27, down from 1.74 in May and and an indication that investors are still
jittery about eurozone sovereign debt.Euro
offers are cited around the US$ 1.3240 level.
The yen depreciated
vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ÂĄ86.35
level and was supported around the ÂĄ85.55 level. There have been no indications that Japanese
monetary authorities have conducted yen-selling intervention and traders remain
fixated with the ÂĄ85 handle even though the paid traded below this area this
week.Some Democratic Party of Japan
legislators today urged Prime Minister Kan to conduct yen-selling intervention
to prevent the yen from surging further.The legislators noted intervention would counter strong deflationary
pressures in the economy and called on Bank of Japan to â€śengage in large-scale
monetary easing.â€ťThe group reported â€śWe
can only say that our nationâ€™s authorities have failed to react with the sense
of crisis (of their American counterparts).While the government has shown some willingness to combat the stronger
yen, we hope they will step up the nature of their comments and actions.On top of failing to unveil specific measures
at a monetary policy board this meeting this week, some BoJ officials even made
statements that could be interpreted as underestimating the economic crisis we
are in.â€ťBoJ Governor Shirakawa and
Prime Minister Kan confirmed they will convene a meeting in short order to
discuss the yen.Interbank dealers have
reported BoJ officials have been officially checking levels in the market,
sometimes a prelude to actual intervention.There we no major Japanese economic data released in Japan today.The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 0.44% to
close at ÂĄ9,253.46.U.S. dollar bids are
cited around the ÂĄ85.30 level.The euro
moved higher vis-Ă -vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around
the ÂĄ111.10 level and was supported around the ÂĄ109.55 level.The
British pound moved higher vis-Ă -vis the yen as sterling tested offers around
the ÂĄ134.80 level while the Swiss franc moved
higher vis-Ă -vis the yen and tested offers around the ÂĄ82.15 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated
vis-Ă -vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7962 in the
over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.7848. Peopleâ€™s Bank of China adviser Xia Bin
reported China should raise deposit rates because real interest rates have been
negative for seven consecutive months.Data
released in China this week saw new mortgage loans in Shanghai off 98% y/y in
July as the government cracked down on property speculation.These data contributed to the view that the
Chinese economy is slowing and the yuan came off.Other data saw July money supply aggregates slow,
producer prices growth slow to +4.8% y/y, July retail sales growth slow to
+17.9% y/y, and July industrial production growth decelerate to +13.4%
British pound appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.5680 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5565 level. There were no major economic data released in
the U.K. today.Bank of England released
its Quarterly Inflation Report this week in which it projected U.K. inflation
will fall well below its 2% inflation target in two years even if interest
rates remain at record lows.BoE cited
â€śhighly uncertainâ€ť prospects and it appears likely the Monetary Policy
Committee will keep rates unchanged for some time.BoE revised higher its 2011 inflation
forecast but now estimates 2012 inflation will be around 1.4%.Similarly, economic growth is expected to be
just above 3% in two yearsâ€™ time, down from its estimate of â€śaroundâ€ť 3.6% in
its May Quarterly Inflation Report.BoE
Governor King said the Bank may conduct additional quantitative easing if
required and can hold, tighten, or loosen policy.Data released in the U.K. this week saw July
Nationwide consumer confidence decelerate to +56 from the prior reading of
+63.Also, the July claimant count was
unchanged at 4.5% with the net change off 3,800 and the ILO unemployment
measure steady at 7.8%.Additionally,
June average weekly earnings were up 1.3% y/y.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5385 level.The
euro depreciated vis-Ă -vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids
around the ÂŁ0.8180 level and was capped around the ÂŁ0.8255 level.
franc appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0545 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0480 level. Swiss National Bank today reported a CHF 2.78
billion loss for the first half of the year on account of a decrease in the
value of its foreign currency reserves.SNBâ€™s
euro reserves tripled in the first half of the year as the central bank
conducted significant franc-selling intervention.Data released in Switzerland today saw July
producer and import prices off 0.5% m/m and up 0.5% y/y.U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF
1.0980 level.The euro depreciated vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc as the single
currency tested bids around the CHF 1.3420 level while the British pound moved higher vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc and tested
offers around the CHF 1.6475 level.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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