Monday August 16, 2010 - 03:46:26 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 16-Aug-2010 - 0340 GMT
The US Equities fell last week. The disappointing economic data coupled with below expected corporate earnings led to the investor worries. The Dow (10303.15) was down 3.29% and the S&P (1079.25) was down 3.78%. The Dow closed just below an important weekly Support at 10334 and we need to see if the next Support at 10200 holds this week.
Asian equities are trading mixed today. The Nikkei (9166.93) is down 0.94% on weaker than expected Q2 GDP and may see some Support near 9000-100 in the coming weeks. The Shanghai (2625.37) is up 0.72%. In India, the markets recovered their initial losses later last week. The Sensex (18167.03) and the Nifty (5452.10) closed up 0.13% and 0.24% respectively. We need to see what course do the markets take this week before we get some clarity on the further movement.
Crude (75.29) is continuing with it downmove. The economic growth concern is retaining the downside pressure. Immediate Support is seen at 75, a break below which might test 74.20, ( 61.8% Fibonacci Fan line Support) which is the next important Support level to watch for. We might expect a bounce back from 74.20-00 region. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1217.80) is continuing to trade higher. Some Resistance is seen at 1120 and a break above it might take it further up towards 1230-40 in the coming days. The overall picture is looking bullish for a rise once again towards 1250-70. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
The Dollar is retaining its strength. The Euro (1.2782) is trading lower near its important Support at 1.2750. A break below it might trigger further downmove towards 1.2500. Resistance is seen at 1.2900. Dollar-Yen (85.81) is retaining its overall downside pressure. With Resistance in 86.70-87.00 region we might see a test of 85.00-84.80 Support region once again over today/tomorrow. Euro-Yen Cross (109.68) is ranged between 109-111 over the last couple of days within its overall downtrend. A break below 109 might see 107.50-00 on the downside.
Dollar-Swiss (1.0515) may move in the range of 1.0500-600 in the coming sessions today. Aussie (0.8893) may get Support at 0.8850, a fall below which may take it further towards 0.8800-750 today. Cable (1.5583) has seen good support near 1.5540-50 today and we may see it move inthe range of 1.5550-650 today.
The Asian Currencies are continuing to trade weak. The Korean-Won is trading bear 1194 and as mentioned earlier we might expect it to weaken further towards 1200-20 in the coming days. The USD-SGD is continuing to trade strong near 1.3646 and has good Support at 1.3600. Dollar-Rupee has closed at 46.76/77 on Friday and has good chances of further rise towards its important Resistance at 47.20 this week.
The 3M USD LIBOR was down 1 bps to be set at 0.37%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were down 2 bps and 8 bps each to quote at 0.52% and 2.66% respectively.
JP GDP Q4'10 (1st Pre)
...Actual 0.1%...Previous 1.1%
09:00 GMT EU July CPI (YoY)
...Expected 1.0%...Previous 0.9%
13:00 GMT US June TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
...Expected $ 36.3 Bln...Previous $ 35.4 Bln
EU Trade Bal
...Actual -1.6 Bln...Previous -3.0 Bln
EU GDP Q1 '10 Final
...Actual 1.0%...Previous 0.2%
US July Retail Sales
...Actual 0.4%...Previous -0.3%
US May Core CPI (MoM)
...Actual 0.1%...Previous 0.2%
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