Monday August 16, 2010 - 12:35:59 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 16-Aug-2010 - 1233 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF 1.0393/96...May go up
R: 1.0550 / 1.0600 / 1.0650
S: 1.0500-470 / 1.0400 / 1.0350
Dollar-Swiss has broken below the Support at 1.0500-480 and has touched a low of 1.0350 followed by upmove beyond 1.0400 in the asian session today. We may now look to go long with chances of the pair targeting 1.0500-550 in the coming sessions over today and tomorrow.
Its been 5 weeks Dollar-Swiss has been trading in the range of 1.0350-600, but has not been able to close above 1.0600. We see good chances of the pair continuing to move in this downward sloping channel. Further, in the coming weeks, there are chances that the pair keeps on moving down slowly towards 1.02-01 in case it breaks below 1.0350 in the coming days.
Market Trade (at the time of writing):
Buy USD 10K at current levels, SL 1.0320, TP 1.0600
GBP-USD @ 1.5611/14...Buy Dips
R: 1.5650 / 1.5700 / 1.5800
S: 1.5550 / 1.5500 / 1.5421
Cable tested the Support at 1.5550 in the European as well as in the Asian session today. The pair may now move up towards 1.5650-700 in the coming sessions over today and tomorrow. Please note that the pair has some immediate Resistance at 1.5620-30, which if holds, may bring it down towards 1.5550. However a break above 1.5650 may push it towards 1.5700-50 in the coming sessions over today and tomorrow.
Please note that in the longer term, we continue to hold our view of a double bottom on the monthly charts which may result in a very strong upmove in the coming weeks/ months towards 1.62-63.
HOwever there is slight Resistance at 1.5650 which may hold, followed by an upmove and the asian session each at twice dipped to a low of 1.5535 to test the Support at 1.5550 in the Asian session today. The pair may move up towards the next resistance level at 1.5650 in the coming sessions today, which may or may not hold. In case the pair honours the Resistance at 1.5650, it may come down towards 1.5550-00, however a break above 1.5650 may take it further towards 1.5700 in the US session today.
GBP 10K Long 1.5540, TSL 1.5550, TP Open
AUD-USD 0.8906/09...Sell rallies
R: 0.9000 / 0.9050 / 0.9150
S: 0.8850-30 / 0.8800 / 0.8720-00
"We continue to hold our morning view on the pair."
Aussie has been falling from the past 5 days after it tested the Channel resistance near 0.9200, last week. We see good chances of the pair moving down further towards 0.8700 on a break below 0.8850 in the coming sessions over this week.
Additionally, the 13 Month MA (0.8879) has been moving up steadily and is just above the 8 Month MA (0.8878). We need to keep a close eye on whether the 13 Month MA crosses the 8 Month MA from below in the coming days / week. If it dioes it may be bearish for the pair in the coming weeks.
The Markets have found some good Resistance at 0.8850 and has bounced back after touching a low of 0.8859 in the Asian session today. While 0.8850 holds, the pair may move up towards 0.8950-9000 in the coming sessions over today and tomorrow. However, a break below 0.8850 may pull it down towards 0.8800 in the coming sessions today, though the chances of a fall below 0.8850 looks distant today.
Limit Sell Order:
Sell AUD 10K at 0.8960, SL 0.9010, TP Open
Sell AUD 10K at 0.9050, SL 0.9140, TP Open
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