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Monday August 16, 2010 - 13:29:09 GMT
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Stocks Down, Bonds Up as Risk Aversion Creeps into Markets

U.S. Equity markets are under pressure this morning as sellers showed up after Japan reported a weak GDP figure. Treasury Bonds are trading higher in response to the possibility of a weaker global economy.

 

Talk is circulating that the Fed may have inadvertently cast a pall on the market last week when it decided to shore up its balance sheet by moving funds from mortgages to Treasury Bonds. This may have sent a message to traders that the central bank is making room for more stimuli. Its action in no way injected any confidence into the fragile markets.

 

Today investors will have three reports to digest to help determine the outlook for the economy. These reports should help shed a little light on the progress of the recovery. Even if they turn out better than expected, the economy is still facing a huge challenge since all indications are showing that economic activity as stalled.

 

The NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Index is expected to show that manufacturing activities expanded in August to 7.50 from 5.10 reported in July. This report should be no big deal since manufacturing has been steady.

 

Net Long-Term TIC Flows are expected to show a surplus. This reports measures foreign investment flowing into the U.S. This report often shows a surplus, but the figure usually offsets the trade balance deficit. In fact some say it is reported to cover-up the trade deficit. Although there is a surplus at this time, an economic slowdown in the U.S. is likely to cause foreigners to curtail their interest in U.S. investments.

 

Finally the NAHB-Housing Market Index gets reported at 9am CDT. This report should be up from the June figure, but this increase could be deceiving since housing took a beating in June following the ending of the tax rebate program.

 

So basically, these reports aren’t expected to trigger much interest following their initial releases. The focus will remain on the longer-term picture and an interpretation of the Fed’s next move.

 

The U.S. Dollar is trading mixed against most major Forex markets, posting gains against the commodity-linked currencies and losses against the Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc.

 

Early in the session, the Dollar was trading a little firmer, but was unable to hold gains after Japanese second-quarter gross domestic product data showed the nation’s economy slowed to a crawl. The sluggish GDP report helped China move up to become the world’s second largest economy.

 

The reported slow down in the Japanese economy also may have strengthened the government’s case for a weaker Yen. For weeks the government has warned that the high price of the Yen may be damaging demand for Japanese exports, thus hurting the economy.

 

At the close on Friday, the Yen posted a reversal bottom for the week. This was an indication that traders were looking for a possible intervention. The lack of follow-through to the upside means this reversal bottom has not been confirmed.

 

The main driver in the Dollar/Yen market the past few trading sessions has been the anticipated moves by the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan. So far all the rhetoric has amounted to a “verbal intervention”, but this has been enough to scare the weaker shorts into covering their positions.

 

This week Prime Minister Naoto Kan and central bank Governor Masaaki Shirakawa meet to discuss the value of the Yen and its effect on the economy. Look for increased volatility in the Japanese Yen as traders try to forecast the government’s and BoJ’s next move.

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 16 Oct
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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