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Monday August 16, 2010 - 20:14:01 GMT -

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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- August Markets


The Daily Forex View

Forex Analysis

August Markets

20:00 GMT ( Aug 16, 2010  We noted early today that forex markets appeared to be looking for direction in the new week. We still feel that way. Many players will want to see how the markets trade in coming days before getting back involved The sharp decline in the EURUSD last week is not trusted by some. It was said to have been caused by worries about the Irish Banking system. There have been reports that China has been moving funds into the EUR and that has been generating a cross-current. Deflation everywhere is a worry. 

Weaker than expected Japanese GDP has the Kan government worried  They warned again about unstable markets, which is code for a too strong JPY. Last week, there was talk of activity in the USDJPY by Kampo (Japan's Postal Savings Bank). Tokyo's line in the sand in USDJPY reportedly is  85.00.  Ever since being briefly penetrated last week, 85.00 has held. Some say the ultimate line in the sand could be as low as 80.00. 


UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: The Far East will see no major releases on Tuesday. In Europe , Eurozone Current Account data are due. The session will also see U.K. inflation data and the German ZEW survey. In North America , U.S. PPI, housing starts and permits, Industrial Production and API data are due.

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads


Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 20:02
EUR 1.2819 65 JPY 109.36 -71 JPY 133.53 -101
GBP 1.5652 63 GBP 81.90 9 CHF 162.72 -136
CHF 1.0396 -129 CHF 1.3327 -97 CHF vs.    
JPY 85.31 -99       JPY 82.06 7

The EURUSD is now higher on the day and the GBPUSD is up. The EURGBP cross is steady. Traders still watch the European sovereign debt situation In the GBP the U.K. new government is politically vulnerable.

The USDCHF is lower and EURCHF is down. The SNB strong stand in supporting the EUR against the CHF has waned after massive FX losses.. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB. The SNB announced that 1H10 forex losses fell to CHF 2.8bln from CHF 4.0bln in 1Q10. 

The USDJPY is off and the EURJPY cross is lower. While Japanese public finances are a mess, analysts point out that most JGBs are owned by Japanese, so Japan is not dependent on foreign investment. The government has been pressed the BOJ to promote growth and favors a lower exchange rate.

Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies

Click on Chart to Enlarge


Commodity         20:02
CAD 1.0442 38 AUD 0.8971 48 Gold 1224 9.60
CNY 6.8048 107 NZD 0.7071 19 WTI 75.23 -0.32

The risk trade continues to be turned on and off almost daily. As for the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD), they are mixed vs. the USD. The Bank of Canada recently hiked interest rates by 25bps. The BOC sent mixed signals afterwards. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. In Australia, RBA is unlikely to tighten in August. The RBNZ is now in a reduced tightening mode. Oil and gold are mixed. Gold is still favored as a refuge from paper money. 


Equities and Bonds are also risk trades. Far East equities closed mixed. European bourses ended mixed. U.S. equities are down. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.58%, -10 bps.

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 


Equities           20:02
NIK 9197 -57 DAX 6111 0 DJIA 10306 4
HSI 21112 41 FTSE 5276 1 S&P 1080 0
SSEC 2662 55 SMI 6286 0 NAS 2181 7
ASX 4439 -21       TSE 11518 6

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.

John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Prior to, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 19 Mar 2018
Tue 20 Mar 2018
AA 9:30 GB- CPI
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 21 Mar 2018
AA 03:00 AU- Employment
AA 9:30 GB- Employment
A 12:30 US- Current Account
AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A A 18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision
A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision
Thu 22 Mar 2018
AA All Day flash PMIs
AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales
AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 23 Mar 2018
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales

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