The euro appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2870
level and was supported around the $1.2730 level.The common currency retraced some of last weekâ€™s
losses as sentiment in the U.S. dollar eroded.Evidencing the mounting global concern with the U.S. economic situation,
the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury notes fell below 0.50% and the yield on
30-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell sharply to 3.711%.Some dealers are concerned the government
bond market may be bracing for deflation while others believe the acute move
lower in yields merely reflects the Federal Reserveâ€™s decision to buy more U.S.
Treasuries, as announced last Tuesday.Data released in the U.S. today saw the August Empire State
manufacturing index improve to 7.10 from the prior reading of 5.09 while the
August NAHB housing market index slowed to +13 from the prior reading of
+14.Additionally, June net long-term
TIC flows increased to US$ 44.4 billion from the revised prior reading of US$
35.3 billion while total net TIC flows decreased to â€“US$ 6.7 billion, sharply
below forecasts and down from the revised prior reading of US$ 17.1
billion.These data are important
because they suggest the U.S. had a difficult time financing its current
account deficit at the end of H1.A Fed
survey released today indicated easier U.S. credit standards in the second
quarter but there was very little change in demand, suggesting the U.S. housing
and mortgage markets will remain weak.Also
underscoring the U.S. dollarâ€™s weakness was a statement from Former Peopleâ€™s
Bank of China adviser Yu Yongding who confirmed China is purchasing â€śquite a
lotâ€ť of European bonds. Similarly, it was reported China purchased ÂĄ1.73
trillion more Japanese debt than it sold in H1 2010, its fastest rate of
purchases in at least five years.These
statements reflect a probable shift in foreign reserves management policy by
China and this will have ramifications for the greenback.Chinaâ€™s holdings of long-term U.S. Treasuries
declined in June for the first time in fifteen months, off 2.5% to US$ 839.7
billion.Notably, this represented the
first year-over-year decline in Chinaâ€™s U.S. Treasury holdings since 2001.In
eurozone news, data released today saw EMU-16 consumer price inflation
decline 0.3% m/m and increase 1.7% y/y while core CPI was up 1.0% y/y. European Central Bank member Honohan said he
sees a â€średuced riskâ€ť of a double-dip recession.Euro offers are cited around the US$
The yen appreciated
vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ÂĄ85.20
level and was capped around the ÂĄ86.20 level. Traders increased their long yen exposure as
evidence mounted the global economy is decelerating and risk aversion became
heightened.A stronger yen increases the
chances of actual yen-selling intervention by Japanese monetary
authorities.Data released in Japan
overnight saw the economy expand at a +0.4% annualized rate in the three months
to 30 June, significantly below the 2.3% growth estimate. Former MoF official â€śMr
Yenâ€ť Sakakibara warned â€śWhat we are seeing is not appreciation of the yen, but
weakness of the dollar, reflecting concerns that the U.S. economy may falter.
There is a chance the yen will reach an all-time high and stay at that level
for the time being.â€ťPrime Minister Kan
verbally intervened again, saying he is â€śclosely watchingâ€ť Japanâ€™s currency and
economy.Other data released in Japan
today saw the June tertiary industry index improve to -0.1% from the revised
reading of -0.8% and the Q2 GDP deflator was off 1.8% y/y.Also, July Tokyo-area condominium sales were
up 27.8% y/y.The Nikkei 225 stock index
lost 0.61% to close at ÂĄ9,196.67.U.S.
dollar bids are cited around the ÂĄ85.30 level.The euro moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as the single currency
tested bids around the ÂĄ109.15 level and was capped around the ÂĄ110.25 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ÂĄ133.15 level while the Swiss franc moved
higher vis-Ă -vis the yen and tested offers around the ÂĄ82.65 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated
vis-Ă -vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8073 in the
over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.7962. Data to be released in China tonight include
the June leading economic index and July actual foreign direct investment.Peopleâ€™s Bank of China warned settlement
risks are increasing with certain short-term financing instruments,
underscoring concerns about hidden risks in the Chinese banking system.Notably, the yuan has now realized its longest
losing streak in a year on sagging global growth expectations.
British pound appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.5700 figure and was supported around the US$ 1.5535 level. Data released in the U.K. today saw August
Rightmove house prices decline 1.7% m/m and increase 4.3% y/y.Data to be released tomorrow include July
consumer price inflation.Bank of
England released its Quarterly Inflation Report last week in which it projected
U.K. inflation will fall well below its 2% inflation target in two years even
if interest rates remain at record lows.BoE cited â€śhighly uncertainâ€ť prospects and it appears likely the
Monetary Policy Committee will keep rates unchanged for some time.BoE revised higher its 2011 inflation
forecast but now estimates 2012 inflation will be around 1.4%.Similarly, economic growth is expected to be
just above 3% in two yearsâ€™ time, down from its estimate of â€śaroundâ€ť 3.6% in
its May Quarterly Inflation Report.BoE
Governor King last week said the Bank may conduct additional quantitative
easing if required and can hold, tighten, or loosen policy. Cable bids are
cited around the US$ 1.5385 level.The euro appreciated vis-Ă -vis the
British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ÂŁ0.8225 level and
was supported around the ÂŁ0.8175 level.
franc appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0350 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0535 level. Swiss National Bank verbally intervened late
last week saying the central bank would intervene if price stability is
threatened, adding the SNB was successful in averting deflation through its
massive franc-selling interventions.Swiss
National Bank today reported a CHF 2.78 billion loss for the first half of the
year on account of a decrease in the value of its foreign currency
reserves.SNBâ€™s euro reserves tripled in
the first half of the year as the central bank conducted significant
franc-selling intervention.U.S. dollar
offers are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.The euro depreciated
vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.3270
level while the British pound moved lower
vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.6140 level.
Forex Trading News
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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