December Gold Pressing Fib Retracement Level into Close
December Gold tested but closed under a key Fibonacci
retracement level on Monday at $1228.00. Slightly above this level is a pair of
downtrending Gann angles at $1230.60 and $1232.50. This setup has the potential
to stop the current rally.
Lately gold and stock indices have been competing for the
same investment dollar. Todayâ€™s closing price reversal bottoms in the stock
indices indicate the possibility of the start of a 2 to 3 day retracement rally.
With stocks putting in reversal bottoms and December Gold
pressing a key retracement area, donâ€™t be surprised by a short-term break in
gold, triggered by a rally in stocks. The set-ups are there for this move to
occur, but confirmation is needed to ignite the move.
Technically, the September E-mini S&P 500 is setup for a
2 to 3 day retracement to 1097.00. The September E-mini NASDAQ pattern suggests
a near-term retracement to 1859.00.
Traders shrugged off stories of heightened sensitivity in
Euro Zone bond markets and drove down the Dollar.
Early in the session the Euro was down on reports that the
premium investors pay to hold 10-year Irish and Greek government bonds rather
than German Bunds were rising. In addition the cost of insuring their debt against
default also increased. The Euro was under pressure early in the session on
this news, but by mid-session had turned around to the positive side. The
market was able to hold these gains into the close.
Contributing to the turnaround in the Euro were three
economic reports. This morningâ€™s NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index didnâ€™t
help the outlook for the economy. The report actually gave off mixed signals
since it showed that manufacturing is still expanding, but at a slower pace.
The September Euro also received support from a surprise
decline in the NAHB-Housing Market Index. The report showed the index declined
to 13 from 14 the month prior. Traders were pricing in an increase to 15.
Technically the Euro posted a daily closing price reversal
bottom. Based on the current short-term range of 1.3334 to 1.2732, traders
should watch for the start of a 2 to 3 day rally with 50% of this range the
next objective at 1.3033. A breakout through 1.2807 is needed to confirm the
All three commodity-linked currencies showed a little
strength on Monday with the Australian and New Zealand Dollar posting closing
price reversal bottoms.
The Australian Dollar could be starting a retracement rally
to .9039. The New Zealand Dollar retracement target is .7175. Short-term
oversold conditions and the return of demand for risk are the primary drivers
behind this morningâ€™s developing reversal bottom. Like the Euro, these two
currency pairs are not outright buys until confirmed. Otherwise the markets may
just drift lower. The Australian Dollarâ€™s reversal will be confirmed after a
rally through .8993, the Kiwi, after a breakout through .7102.
Risk aversion helped strengthen the Japanese Yen despite the
news that Japanâ€™s
gross domestic product slowed during the second quarter.
The weakness in the Dollar/Yen also meant that last weekâ€™s
weekly closing price reversal bottom was not confirmed. This means that traders
are once again favoring safety over the possibility of an intervention by the
Japanese government and the Bank of Japan.
Traders now believe that an intervention will not be
effective without the cooperation of other central banks which seems remote at
this time since many are dealing with too many problems of their own without
having to worry about Japan.
Continue to look for the possibility of extreme volatility.
The threat of a Japanese intervention will still linger until government
officials put it to death. In addition, concerns about sovereign debt of
peripheral Euro Zone members have begun rising again. At a minimum this should
limit gains in the Euro, but could lead to fresh selling pressure.
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