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Monday August 16, 2010 - 23:51:31 GMT
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December Gold Pressing Fib Retracement Level into Close

December Gold tested but closed under a key Fibonacci retracement level on Monday at $1228.00. Slightly above this level is a pair of downtrending Gann angles at $1230.60 and $1232.50. This setup has the potential to stop the current rally.


Lately gold and stock indices have been competing for the same investment dollar. Today’s closing price reversal bottoms in the stock indices indicate the possibility of the start of a 2 to 3 day retracement rally.


With stocks putting in reversal bottoms and December Gold pressing a key retracement area, don’t be surprised by a short-term break in gold, triggered by a rally in stocks. The set-ups are there for this move to occur, but confirmation is needed to ignite the move.


Technically, the September E-mini S&P 500 is setup for a 2 to 3 day retracement to 1097.00. The September E-mini NASDAQ pattern suggests a near-term retracement to 1859.00.


Traders shrugged off stories of heightened sensitivity in Euro Zone bond markets and drove down the Dollar.


Early in the session the Euro was down on reports that the premium investors pay to hold 10-year Irish and Greek government bonds rather than German Bunds were rising. In addition the cost of insuring their debt against default also increased. The Euro was under pressure early in the session on this news, but by mid-session had turned around to the positive side. The market was able to hold these gains into the close.


Contributing to the turnaround in the Euro were three lackluster U.S. economic reports. This morning’s NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index didn’t help the outlook for the economy. The report actually gave off mixed signals since it showed that manufacturing is still expanding, but at a slower pace.


The September Euro also received support from a surprise decline in the NAHB-Housing Market Index. The report showed the index declined to 13 from 14 the month prior. Traders were pricing in an increase to 15.


Technically the Euro posted a daily closing price reversal bottom. Based on the current short-term range of 1.3334 to 1.2732, traders should watch for the start of a 2 to 3 day rally with 50% of this range the next objective at 1.3033. A breakout through 1.2807 is needed to confirm the pattern.


All three commodity-linked currencies showed a little strength on Monday with the Australian and New Zealand Dollar posting closing price reversal bottoms.


The Australian Dollar could be starting a retracement rally to .9039. The New Zealand Dollar retracement target is .7175. Short-term oversold conditions and the return of demand for risk are the primary drivers behind this morning’s developing reversal bottom. Like the Euro, these two currency pairs are not outright buys until confirmed. Otherwise the markets may just drift lower. The Australian Dollar’s reversal will be confirmed after a rally through .8993, the Kiwi, after a breakout through .7102.


Risk aversion helped strengthen the Japanese Yen despite the news that Japan’s gross domestic product slowed during the second quarter.


The weakness in the Dollar/Yen also meant that last week’s weekly closing price reversal bottom was not confirmed. This means that traders are once again favoring safety over the possibility of an intervention by the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan.


Traders now believe that an intervention will not be effective without the cooperation of other central banks which seems remote at this time since many are dealing with too many problems of their own without having to worry about Japan.


Continue to look for the possibility of extreme volatility. The threat of a Japanese intervention will still linger until government officials put it to death. In addition, concerns about sovereign debt of peripheral Euro Zone members have begun rising again. At a minimum this should limit gains in the Euro, but could lead to fresh selling pressure.


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