Tuesday August 17, 2010 - 04:03:37 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 17-Aug-2010 - 0340 GMT
The Dow (10302.01) and the S&P (1079.38) closed flat yesterday. The Dow closed just below an important weekly Support at 10334 and we need to see if the next Support at 10200 holds this week.
Asian equities are trading mixed today. The Nikkei (9128.85) is down 0.74% on stronger Yen and may see some Support near 9000-100 in the coming days, which may hold. The Shanghai (2668.54, up 0.26%) is near very important Resistance at 2700-50, which may now be broken for an upmove towards 3000 in the coming weeks. In India the markets closed lower yesterday. The Sensex (18050.78) and the Nifty (5418.30) were down about 0.6%. We need to see if Sensex honours the Support at 18000-50 in the next few sessions, which may decide the course of the markets for the coming days.
Crude (75.30) is continuing to trade weak. The economic growth concerns is retaining the downside pressure on the commodity. We might expect a break and a downmove below 75 towards 74.20-00 in the coming days. Note that 74.20 (61.8% Fibonacci Fan line Support) is a very important Support level to watch for.
Gold (1224.10) is keeping up its upside momentum and a rise towards 1230-40 can be seen in the coming days. The overall bullish sentiment is intact and we might see a rise once again towards 1250-70. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
The Euro (1.2841) is trading above 1.2800 and might test the Resistance at 1.2900 today. A break above 1.2900 might increase the chances of further rise towards 1.2950-3000 over today/tomorrow. Dollar-Yen (85.34) is continuing to trade lower. Although the Support in 85.00-84.80 region is continuing to hold, with lack of upside momentum it is expected to retain the overall downside pressure. The Euro-Yen Cross (109.52) has bounced back from yesterday's low of 109.06. The Support at 109.00 is holding very well over the last few days and a break above 110 might see a rise towards 111 today.
Dollar-Swiss (1.0391) has continued to honour the Support at 1.0350, which may take it towards 1.0500-50 in the coming sessions today. Cable (1.5664) is in the important Resistance region of 1.5650-700, which may or may not be honoured in the coming sessions over today and tomorrow. Aussie (0.8993) may see some Resistance near 0.9000-25, which may be honoured pulling the pair towards at 0.8900-850 today.
The Asian currencies are trading strong. The Korean-Won is trading near 1176 and USD-SGD is trading near 1.3570. Dollar-Rupee has closed at 46.80/81 yesterday and might test the Support at 46.60 today.
The 3M USD LIBOR was down 1 bps to be set at 0.36%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were down 2 bps and 7 bps each to quote at 0.50% and 2.59% respectively.
08:30 GMT July UK CPI Y/Y
...Expected 3.1%...Previous 3.2%
12:30 GMT US July Housing Starts
...Expected 0.570 Mln...Previous 0.550 Mln
12:30 GMT US July Core PPI (MoM)
...Expected 0.2%...Previous 0.1%
12:30 GMT US July Core PPI (YoY)
...Expected 0.2%..Previous 1.1%
13:15 GMT US July Industrial Production
...Expected 0.5%...Previous 0.1%
13:15 GMT US July Capacity Utilization
...Expected 74.6%...Previous 74.1%
JP GDP Q4'10 (1st Pre)
...Actual 0.1%...Previous 1.1%
EU July CPI (YoY)
...Actual 1.0%...Previous 0.9%
US June TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
...Actual $ 44.4 Bln...Previous $ 35.3 Bln
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