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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 17/08/2010
ForexPros Daily Analysis
August 17, 2010
Analysis: MPC Meeting Minutes
The Bank of England (BOE) Monetary
Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting Minutes
are a detailed record of the
committee's interest rate meeting held about
two weeks earlier.
It gives a
picture of economic conditions in the UK. It also records the
votes of the
individual members of the Committee
If the BoE is hawkish about the
inflationary outlook, it should be taken as
positive/bullish for the
As the new week started,
The Euro consolidated just below Friday's low,
reaching 1.2733 before
rebounding fast to 1.2869. Such a rebound is
considered very "modest"
comparing to the drop it followed, which came very
close to 600 pips! We can
clearly see that we have not even reached the
first Fibonacci level 38.2%.
Technically, the most important event was
dropping to another important trend
line, which is the rising trend line
from June 7th low (please refer to the
attached chart). This line which was
tested accurately yesterday, is at
1.2759. But before we think about it,
there is another support worth
mentioning which is 1.2822. If this level is
broken, we will be already on
the way to test the important trend line at
1.2759 as a first target, and if
broken we will see the Euro dropping hard
to 1.2660. On the other hand,
yesterday's trading showed that resistance is
at 1.2872. Only with a break
here will the Euro be able to move forward. If
we get this break, we think
that the price will rise with the target of
reaching Fibonacci levels 1.2962
* 1.2822: the rising trend line from
yesterday's bottom on the intraday
* 1.2759: the rising trend line
from Jun 7th low on the hourly chart.
* 1.2660: Jul 6th
* 1.2872: previous well known
* 1.2962: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month
* 1.3033: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the
3-month high of
leave the daily & weekly charts we have been obsessed with lately,
just focus on the hourly chart. We can see that there is a very
trend line, dropping from June 4th top. This line is almost at
resistance which the price tried to break on Friday, but left it
shortly after that. Therefore, all of our attention is at the exciting
lien & the importance it provides. As long as we are trading below
line, the downtrend will be ok, but if we break the resistance 86.21 we
shoot up targeting 87.00 and may be 87.70. Where if we go back to
below the support 85.00, there will be nothing stopping the price
reaching our awaited target 83.85, and may be at a later time we will
82.65 as well.
* 85.00: Aug 6th low.
83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from
compared to the wave which started at 88.10.
* 82.65: the trend
line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09,
on the weekly
* 86.21: the falling trend line from June
4th top on the hourly chart, and
Aug 10th top.
* 87.00: Jul 7th low.
87.70: June 26th top.
---Forex trading analysis written
by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
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