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Tuesday August 17, 2010 - 14:41:11 GMT
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Investors Shying Away from U.S. Dollar in Wake of Economic Concerns

The U.S. Dollar is under pressure overnight as traders throw their support into the Yen, Euro, Swiss Franc and the commodity-linked currencies. On-going concerns over a slowdown in global growth continue to be the main catalyst behind the selling pressure.

 

With the Dollar giving back some of its gains from last week, investors are beginning to question if the current weakness is the start of another leg down or simply a retracement of last week’s rally. Traders seem to be a little confused as to which route to take today. On one hand, the rallies in the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc suggest investors are seeking shelter in lower yielding currencies. On the other hand, the rallies in the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar indicate there is still appetite for risk.

 

Volatility is likely to increase over the near term as traders will eventually have to decide whether risk is on or risk is off.

 

The USD JPY is trading flat to lower shortly before the New York session opening. The inability to follow-through to the upside after last week’s weekly closing price reversal bottom has all but taken the chance of an intervention off the table.

 

Technically, the USD JPY still has a chance to begin another attempt to breakout to the upside however. The overnight weakness has created a new swing top at 86.37 which means a breakout over this level will turn the main trend to up on the daily chart.

 

Based on the short-term range of 84.73 to 86.37, the market has to begin establishing support at the 50%/62% retracement zone at 85.55 to 85.36 or selling pressure will overcome the buying and this pair will test or exceed the previous swing bottom at 84.73.

 

Although the overnight price action penetrated the low end of this zone, a close over either 85.36 or even better 85.55 will be a strong indication that new buyers may have stepped up. This would put the market in a position to post a possible secondary higher bottom.

 

On Monday the Euro posted a daily closing price reversal bottom at 1.2732. Last night this reversal bottom was confirmed, setting up the possibility of a short-covering rally to 1.3033 to 1.3104.

 

Often after a hard sell-off from a major top, the market has a snapback rally to set up a secondary lower top. This occurs because the first break is usually dominated by longs bailing out. So another rally is needed to give traders an opportunity to put on fresh shorts. A rally back to 1.3033 to 1.3104 will give investors an opportunity to do so.

 

If this rally fails to materialize, then look for the downtrend to resume with an objective of the major retracement zone at 1.2605 to 1.2433.

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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