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Tuesday August 17, 2010 - 16:03:58 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

Tuesday, August 17, 2010 11:14:52 AM

 US Market Update

DOW +125 S&P +14 Nasdaq +34

***Economic Data***
- (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Inflation IGP-10: 0.5% v 0.5%e
- (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Aug 14th: -1.3% w/w; +3.3% y/y
- (PD) Poland July Avg Gross Wages M/M: 0.9 % v 2.6%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 3.8%e
- (PD) Poland July Employment M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e
- (CA) Canada Jun Int'l Securities Transactions: C$5.4B v C$9.3Be
- (CA) Canada Jun Manufacturing Sales M/M: +0.1% v -0.5%e
- (US) July Producer Price Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; PPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.3% v 0.1%e
- (US) July Housing Starts: 546K v 560Ke; Building Permits: 565K v 580Ke
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Aug 14th: +2.7% y/y; MTD: +1.0% v July
- (US) July Industrial Production: 1.0% v 0.5%; Capacity Utilization: 74.8% v 74.6%e
- (BR) Brazil July Tax Collections (BRL): 68.0B v 66.1Be

***Fixed Income***
- (EU) ECB drains €60.5 v €60.5B at 7-day Term- deposit auction; weighted average 0.39% v 0.43% prior

- Modestly positive US economic data is lifting equities this morning. The July industrial production data returned to growth after flat lining in June, while the PPI data showed that wholesale prices rose for the first time since March, somewhat dampening deflation fears. Note that volumes remain very light in thin trading. The July housing data was mixed, with housing starts a bit higher over June levels, but forward-looking building permits down more than 3% from June (both numbers missed consensus estimates). With equities bid, the yield on the 10-year T-bill rose to 2.61% from 2.57% late Monday. Crude is up more than a buck, trading around $76.30.

- Retail giants Wal-Mart, Home Depot and TJX Companies met expectations in second quarter results reported before the open this morning. Wal-Mart's outlook for next quarter was a bit weaker than analysts' expectations. The CEO said the slow economic recovery would continue make the company's customers very cautious. Home Depot trimmed its full year revenue outlook slightly, warning that the current economic softness was making the company's view of the second half of 2010 conservative.
TJX slightly increased its full year guidance. Two smaller retailers, Abercrombie & Fitch and Saks, did better than expected in their second quarter results. Saks beat top- and bottom-line expectations, while ANF's losses were less than expected. Shares of HD are up nearly 3%, while WMT and TJX are up 2% each. SKS is up 2%, while ANF is down 8%.

- The merger madness continues this morning, after a big day for deals on Monday. Potash Corp said that BHP Billiton offered an unsolicited $130/shr acquisition proposal, which Potash's board rejected as "grossly inadequate." Executives said BHP's offer "does not even come close" to the intrinsic value of Potash Corp (the offer values the company around $38.6B). Executives from Potash Corp said the company had "unparalleled growth prospects," and insisted that the industry is on the verge of demand inflection. Shares of
POT are up 25%, while other major potash names are up significantly, with CF, MOS and IPI up around 7-8% on the day. There was some talk that Vale would be interested in also bidding for Potash Corp, but CNBC's Faber reported to the contrary.

- The greenback has weakened against the euro and commodity-related pairs but firmer against the other majors in
New York trading. The Euro continued to be aided by the earlier peripheral auction results, although dangers are still lurking in the shadows after the Irish Central Bank governor signaled that building society Irish Nationwide would need additional capital. Softer US housing data weighed upon the dollar but dealer chatter circulated of a think tank report saying that economic conditions needed to worsen for Fed to enact additional quantitative easing measures.

- Moody's commented on "AAA" rated sovereign debt and noted that France, Germany, UK and US faced fiscal challenges but retained a stable outlook, stating that the 'distance to downgrade' has been further reduced and warned that the countries must address long-term fiscal challenges. CAD was helped by potential M&A flows after Potash rejected BHP Billiton's offer. USD/CAD is moving below the 1.0350 area and lower by 100 pips from earlier highs in the trading day.

***Looking Ahead***

12:30 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota
16:30 (US) API weekly energy inventories
17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Aug 15th: -48e v -47 prior



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