The euro appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2915
level and was supported around the $1.2805 level.The common currency stopped short of testing
the $1.2930 level, representing the 50% retracement of the move from $1.2525 to
$1.3335. Minneapolis Fed President
Kocherlakota reported a â€śmodestâ€ť U.S. economic recovery is under way and said
the markets may have concluded the economy is weaker than is actually the case
based on the Federal Open Market Committeeâ€™s policy statement dated 10
August.Kocherlakota also said
unemployment is likely to exceed 8% into 2012 and said â€śpersistent deflationâ€ť
is unlikely.The Fed today purchased US$
2.551 billion in Treasuries in its first outright purchase of U.S. government
debt since October.St. Louis Fed
President Bullard is said to support asset purchases if inflation declines
more.Data released in the U.S. today saw the July
producer price index climb 0.2% m/m and 4.2% y/y at the headline level and 0.3%
m/m and 1.5% y/y at the ex-food and energy level.Also, July housing starts were up 1.7% m/m to
an annualized 546,000 and July building permits were off 3.1% m/m to an
annualized 565,000.Additionally, July
industrial production was up 1.0% and capacity utilization ticked higher to
74.8%.MBA mortgage applications data
will be released tomorrow.In eurozone news, data released today
saw the EMU-16 June current account narrow to -â‚¬4.6 billion from the prior
reading of -â‚¬7.4 billion.Also, the
EMU-16 August ZEW survey of economic sentiment improved to 15.8 from the prior
reading of 10.7.Also, the German August
ZEW economic sentiment index declined to 14.0 from the prior reading of 21.2
while the current situation index improved to 44.3.Euro offers are cited around the US$
The yen depreciated
vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ÂĄ85.65
level and was supported around the ÂĄ85.10 level. The pair retraced some of yesterdayâ€™s losses
as risk appetite approved overnight, culminating in less demand for yen,
selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries, and solid gains in U.S. equity
markets.Economics minister Arai
confirmed the Japanese government will deliberate new fiscal stimulus measures
on Friday.Japanâ€™s ability to increase
fiscal spending is restrained by the highest debt-to-gross domestic product
ratio among industrialized countries.Some
dealers are already speculating Bank of Japan could ease policy further if the
government increases fiscal spending also.A coalition member of Kanâ€™s coalition government, The Peopleâ€™s New
Party, is requesting an economic stimulus package valued around ÂĄ11
trillion.Traders are still talking about
the possibility of actual yen-selling intervention by Japanese monetary
authorities.Former MoF official â€śMr Yenâ€ť
Sakakibara cautioned â€śWithout the support of the United States, intervention on
the part of the Japanese government wouldnâ€™t be effective.â€ťHe added â€śThe Bank of Japan could do a little
to ease monetary policy further, to buy government bonds and provide
liquidity.Japanese monetary policy is
already quite easy, so additional easing really wouldnâ€™t have much of an impact
on the exchange rate.â€ť Speaking about
the exchange rate, he added â€śIn real terms the yen is not really that strong
compared to 1995 when it broke 80. The real rate we have now, even at 80, is
much, much weaker.Eighty in 1995 is
comparable to 60 or 70 today so we shouldnâ€™t be too much worried about the yen
being 85 or 80 at this moment.In 1995,
we were in crisis.Now, given the fact
that the U.S. economy is faltering and the Japanese economy is doing relatively
better, I think this situation is not what you call a crisis situation.We have not seen any explicit exit from the
euro crisis, so I think this crisis would prolong and it may spread beyond
Greece to Spain, Portugal and the rest of Europe.As far as euro-yen is concerned, I think it
is quite possible that euro-yen would break 100.â€ťPrime Minister Kan and BoJ Governor Shirakawa
will convene a meeting on 23 August.The
Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.38% to close at ÂĄ9,161.68.U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ÂĄ85.30
moved higher vis-Ă -vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around
the ÂĄ110.40 level and was supported around the ÂĄ109.05 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ÂĄ133.05 level while the Swiss franc moved
lower vis-Ă -vis the yen and tested bids around the ÂĄ81.70 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-Ă -vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7920 in the
over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8073. Data released in China overnight saw July
actual foreign direct investment up 29.2% y/y.Government official Zhang Ming reported China will continue to reduce
its holdings of U.S. Treasuries.China
reported it will permit overseas financial institutions to invest in the
domestic yuan interbank bond market.Central
Huijin Investment Co plans to sell CNY 54 billion of bonds on 24 August.
British pound depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.5550 level and was capped around the US$ 1.5695 level. Data released in the U.K. today saw July
consumer price inflation off 0.2% m/m and up 3.1% y/y, down from Juneâ€™s +3.2%
y/y level.Core CPI growth decelerated
to +2.6% y/y from the prior level of +3.1% and these data are consistent with
Bank of England projections that speculated price pressures may begin to
abate.Minutes from Bank of Englandâ€™s
August Monetary Policy Committee meeting will be released tomorrow and traders
will be curious to see if there was a three-way split in voting this
month.BoE Governor King today told
Chancellor Osborne that he is â€śsurprisedâ€ť by the recent elevated level of
inflation and warned headline inflation may continue to print above 3.0% for
some time.King also reiterated the
central bank is prepared to expand or reduce monetary stimulus as
required.Cable bids are cited around
the US$ 1.5385 level.The euro appreciated vis-Ă -vis the
British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ÂŁ0.8275 level and
was supported around the ÂŁ0.8185 level.
franc depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.0445 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0360 level. Data
to be released on Thursday include July trade balance numbers and the August Credit
Suisse ZEW survey.Swiss National Bank
verbally intervened late last week saying the central bank would intervene if
price stability is threatened, adding the SNB was successful in averting
deflation through its massive franc-selling interventions.Swiss National Bank today reported a CHF 2.78
billion loss for the first half of the year on account of a decrease in the
value of its foreign currency reserves.SNBâ€™s
euro reserves tripled in the first half of the year as the central bank
conducted significant franc-selling intervention.U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF
1.0980 level.The euro appreciated vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc as the single
currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3455 level while the British pound moved lower vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc and tested bids
around the CHF 1.6220 level.
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Tue 19 June 2018 A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts Wed 20 June 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 June 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 22 June 2018 AFlash PMIs
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