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Wednesday August 18, 2010 - 10:34:01 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 18/08/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis August 18,
Analysis: MPC Meeting Minutes
Initial Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number
people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during
given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and
as a weekly report.
The number of jobless claims is used as a
measure of the health of the job
market, as a series of increases indicates
that there are fewer people being
On a week-to-week basis, claims
are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at
least 35K in claims, is required to
signal a meaningful change in job
A higher than expected reading
should be taken as negative/bearish for the
USD, while a lower than expected
reading should be taken as positive/bullish
for the USD. The analyst predicts
the future reading of 475.00K.
The Euro went on with its bounce from the bottom it
reached shortly after
the weekly open 1.2733, and scored a high at 1.2914,
before dropping to the
support we specified in yesterday's report 1.2822 down
to the pip. Such a
rebound is considered very "modest" comparing to the drop
it followed, which
came very close to 600 pips! We can clearly see that we
have not even
reached the first Fibonacci level 38.2%. Technically, the most
event was dropping to another important trend line, which is the
trend line from June 7th low (please refer to the attached chart).
which was tested accurately on Monday, is at 1.2802. If this level
broken, we will be already on the way to test this week's low at 1.2733 as
first target, and if broken we will see the Euro dropping to 1.2660. On
other hand, resistance is at 1.2879. Only with a break here will the Euro
able to move forward. If we get this break, we think that the price
rise with the target of reaching Fibonacci levels 1.2962 &
* 1.2802: the rising trend line from Jun 7th
low on the hourly chart.
* 1.2733: this week's low so far.
* 1.2660: Jul
* 1.2879: short term Fibonacci 61.8%
* 1.2962: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high
* 1.3033: Fibonacci 50% level for the drop from the 3-month
high of 1.3332.
bored us yesterday with a very limited trading range, it did
not break any of
the levels specified in yesterday's report, therefore,
there is only a very
limited change to yesterday's technical outlook. Let's
leave the daily &
weekly charts we have been obsessed with lately, and just
focus on the hourly
chart. We can see that there is a very exciting trend
line, dropping from
June 4th top. This line is almost at 86.21: the
resistance which the price
tried to break on Friday, but left it alone
shortly after that. Therefore,
all of our attention is at the exciting trend
lien & the importance it
provides. As long as we are trading below this
line, the downtrend will be
ok, but if we break the resistance 86.21 we will
shoot up targeting 87.00 and
may be 87.70. Where if we go back to trade
below the support 85.09, there
will be nothing stopping the price from
reaching our awaited target 83.85,
and may be at a later time we will see
* 85.09: yesterday's low.
* 83.87: Fibonacci
extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86,
compared to the wave
which started at 88.10.
* 82.65: the trend line combining the monthly lows of
Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09,
on the weekly chart.
86.21: the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart, and
* 87.00: Jul 7th low.
* 87.70: June 26th
---Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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