Wednesday August 18, 2010 - 12:28:39 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 18-Aug-2010 - 1227 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0417/20...Ranged
R: 1.0455-81 / 1.0497-0533 / 1.0583-0621
S: 1.0420 / 1.0350 / 1.0330-00
"We continue to hold our morning view on the pair today."
Dollar-Swiss continues to honour the 1.03-06 range, in line with expectation. Its been turning up slowly over the last couple of days, coming up from the range-low near 1.0350 (16-Aug). If and while it remains above 1.04 today, we may hope to see a rally towards the 1.0450-0530 region, which is more or less in the middle of the range. Whether the rally can continue up to 1.06 will have to be seen.
GBP-USD @ 1.5642/45...Bounce looks bullish. Holding Long
R: 1.5685-95 / 1.5719
S: 1.5610 / 1.5581 / 1.5530 / 1.5495
The Pound dropped to test the 200-day MA (1.5494) before the BOE Minutes were released and then rallied sharply once the Minutes were released. The MPC had voted 8-1 to keep interest rates low on 05-Aug, whereas the market had been expecting a 3-way split. Technically, the bounce back is quite bullish because it (A) suggests that the break below the 1.5580-30 Support region was a false break and (B) establishes the importance of the 200-day MA as Support.
A rise past 1.5670-80 over today-tomorrow can take the market up towards 1.59 over the rest of the week.
GBP 10K Long at 1.5630, SL 1.5540, TP 1.5860 (from Open earlier)
AUD-USD 0.9023/26...Sell Rallies
R: 0.9050-70 / 0.9110 / 0.9147
S: 0.8950 / 0.8900 / 0.8850-30
Aussie has moved up in the European session today after honouring the Support at 0.8980-9000. There are some chances that the pair may move up again towards 0.9060-80 in the coming sessions over today and tomorrow, where we may look to add to our short positions, followed by another dip below 0.9000 in a couple of days.
AUD 10K Short at 0.9050, SL 0.9140, TP Open
Limit Sell Order:
Sell AUD 10K at 0.9070, SL 0.9140, TP Open
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