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Wednesday August 18, 2010 - 15:21:05 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

Wednesday, August 18, 2010 10:56:40 AM

 US Market Update

DOW -57 S&P 500 -2 Nasdaq -6

***Economic data***
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Aug 13th: 13.0% v 0.6% prior
- (PD) Poland July Producer Prices M/M: 3.9% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.9% v 3.1%e
- (PD) Poland July Sold Industrial Output M/M: -6.1% v -3.8%e; Y/Y: 10.3% v 12.6%e
- (CL) Chile Q2 Current Account: $47M v $75Me; GDP Y/Y: 6.5% v 6.2%e
- (RU) Russia July Real Retail Sales M/M: 3.0% v 1.9%e; Y/Y: 6.6% v 6.4%e
- (RU) Russia July Unemployment Rate: 7.0% v 6.8%e
- (IS) Israeli July Leading Indicator M/M: 0.2% v 0.1% prior
- (US) Weekly DOE energy inventories: Crude: -820K v -1.0Me; Gasoline: -40K v -375Ke; Distillate: +1.1M v +1.4Me; Utilization: 90.0% v 87.2%e

***Fixed Income***
- (CZ) Czech Republic to sell CZK7.1B v CZK8B indicated in 5.7% May 2024 Bond; avg yield 3.867% v 4.582% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.4x v 1.6x prior

- US equity trading has whipsawed back and forth in light volume this morning. There has been little news to drive sentiment, besides some soft quarterly results from Deere & Co. and Target. Note that many participants have been speculating that yesterday's resumption of Fed treasury purchases in open market operations provided a short term sugar high for equity markets yesterday morning, with more to come over the next several months. Crude is pushing out to one-month lows around $74 following the DoE weekly inventory data.

- Shares of Deere have given up nearly 2% this morning in the wake of slightly soft Q3 revenue performance. Deere's EPS was well ahead of expectations, as usual. Cautious comments from Deere's CEO and some less than stellar guidance are also weighing on the name. Note that the CEO warned that European markets are down sharply. Demand for construction and forestry equipment is improved from last year but still remains far below normal levels. The firm also locked in 2010 guidance that was merely in the middle of its prior range from May. The only real bright spot mentioned by Deere is
South America, where industry sales are projected to increase by 25 to 30% mainly due to improvement in the key Brazilian and Argentine markets. Shares of competitor CAT were down a bit as well.

- Retail names Target and BJ's offered soft Q2 results. Target's revenue missed expectations and its gross margins were flat. BJ's missed top- and bottom-line estimates and slashed its 2010 guidance. On the conference call, BJ's CEO warned that consumer spending would be weak in the back half of 2010, with the environment remaining extremely competitive.

- The dollar was off its worst levels against the European pairs in US trading as softer equity markets provided some risk aversion and Gov't bond yields continue to move lower on safe-haven flows. EUR/USD has been having difficulties sustain gains above the 1.29 level since Aug 12th. The USD/JPY pair continues to hover in the lower end of the 85 handle as markets continue to probe the Japanese patience on a strong JPY currency.

***Looking Ahead***
- (BR) Brazil Jul
CAGED Formal Job Creation: No est v 213.0K prior
- (PH) Philippines July Budget (PHP): No est v -34.6B -prior
- 12:30 (CA) Bank of Canada report on impact of banking standards
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Jun Industrial Production Y/Y: 8.9%e v 7.5% prior; Retail Sales Y/Y: 12.5%e v 13.1% prior



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