USD JPY Consolidating; Could be Setting Up for Rally
The USD JPY is consolidating inside the retracement zone
created by the 84.73 to 86.37 range. This zone is 85.55 to 85.35.If the market can form a support base then
look for it to make a run at the swing top at 86.37. Not only will a breakout
over this level turn the main trend to up on the daily chart, but it will also
confirm last weekâ€™s weekly closing price reversal bottom.
The Dollar/Yen is also sitting on a major downtrending Gann
angle from the 94.98 top at 85.48. This angle is acting like a pivot price.
Look for the market to strengthen above it and weaken below.
Based on the current chart formation, it looks as if the key
will be breaking out over and sustaining a move above 85.55. This scenario
would put the market on the bullish side of both the 50% level and the
downtrending Gann angle.
The short-term charts indicate that the market may have
trouble at 86.42 to 86.82 and 86.94 to 87.46. Once these areas are cleared,
then watch for a possible acceleration to the upside with 89.85 a potential
The possibility of an intervention may still be lingering in
the air. This speculation fueled last weekâ€™s rally, but weak U.S. economic
data has prevented the market from following through this week.
The Japanese government and the Bank of Japan may still be
considering an intervention, but at first wanted to weaken the Yen through a
verbal intervention. At this time it is possible, that government officials and
the BoJ are trying to drum up support for an intervention.
Another reason for a rally would be the possibility of a
stock market rally. The market is looking good this week and a breakout to the
upside could renew interest in the carry trade, a strategy that involves
selling the Yen.
Traders should focus on one area of the chart at this time,
85.36 to 85.55. A close below the lower level would indicate weakness, but a
close above the upper level could indicate the start of a strong rally.
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