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Thursday August 19, 2010 - 10:00:28 GMT
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European Market Update: July UK retail sales and borrowing data better than forecasts (Trade the News)

Thursday, August 19, 2010 5:53:18 AM

 European Market Update: July UK retail sales and borrowing data better than forecasts


***Economic Data***
- (JP) July Tokyo Dept. Store Sales Y/Y: -1.7% v -5.5% prior; Nationwide Dept. Sales Y/Y: -1.4% v -6.0%
- (PH) Philippines July Balance of Payments: $91M v $502M prior
- (GE) Germany July Producer Prices M/M: 0.5% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.3%e
- (JP) Japan July Final Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 144.9% v 144.8% prelim
- (TH) Thailand July Custom Trade Balance: -$940M v $1.6Be; Exports Y/Y: 20.6% v 37.1%e; Imports Y/Y: 36.1% v 32.0%e
- (SZ) Swiss July Trade Balance (CHF): 2.9B v 1.82Be; Exports M/M: 1.9 v -5.5% prior; Imports M/M: -4.0 v -10.2% prior
- (IN) India Primary Articles WPI w/e Aug 7th Y/Y: 14.9% v 15.7% prior
- (HU) Hungary Jun Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.8%e
- (AS) Austria Jun Producer Price Index M/M: 0.5% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 3.5% v 2.9% prior
- (NV) Netherlands July Unemployment Rate: % v 5.5%e
- (NV) Netherlands Aug Consumer Confidence: v -12e v -14 prior
- (RU) Russia Q2 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Y/Y: -11% v 17.6% prior
- (NO) Norway Q2 GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.2%e;
GDP Mainland (Non-Oil) Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.3%e
- (TT) Taiwan Q2 GDP Y/Y: 12.5% v 10.2%e
- (UK) July Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M: 0.9% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 1.8%e
- (UK) July Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel M/M: 1.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 0.6%e
- (UK) July Public Finances (PSNCR) -£4.1 v £0.9Be; Public Sector Net Borrowing: £3.2 v £4.8B

- (UK) July Preliminary M4 Money Supply M/M:0.4 % v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.0%e
- (UK) July Major Banks Mortgage Approvals: 47K v 48.0K prior
- (SZ) Swiss Aug Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: 9.1 v 2.2 prior
- (PH) Philippines July Budget (PHP): -32.7B v -34.6B -prior

Fixed Income
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency sold
HUF50 (as expected) in 12-month Bills; avg yield %5.44 v 5.66% prior; Bid-to-cover: x 1.9x prior
- (UK) DMO sold £1.0B in 1.25% Index-Linked 2027 Gilts; avg yield 0.870% v 0.939% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.9x v 1.6x prior

- UK Retail sales exceed expectations; Public borrowing less than forecasted; July public finance data suggest receipts strengthening in line with OBR forecasts
- BoJ emergency meeting 'unlikely'
- Australia PM Gillard: Election win would be mandate for gov't mining tax proposal
- London Times: French President Sarkozy calls crisis meeting to avert loss of sovereign "AAA" rating.
- German Magzine Der Spiegel: Tensions rise in Greece as austerity measures backfire

- Equities:
- As of 5:35am ET Euro Stoxx 50 Index -0.2% at 2,723; DAX Index -0.3% at 6,168; CAC-40 Index -0.3% at 3,637 and FTSE 100 Index -0.3% at 5,285

European bourses opened in positive territory but quickly turned into red over concerns over France's AAA rating. Better
UK retail sales, borrowing data and a higher GDP reading out of Taiwan helped to stem the losses ahead of the NY morning.

- Swiss cement maker, Holcim [HOLN.SZ] reported a second quarter net income which was significantly below estimates while revenue came slightly higher compared to estimates. Uncertainty prevailed over its outlook as company stated that global economic recovery has not happened yet and uncertainties , especially in
Europe and North America made forecasting difficult. Shares opened lower by 4.3% and continue to trade lower dragging down its peers as well such as Lafarge and Heidelbergcement. Kuoni [KUNN.SZ] reported a net loss which was narrower than last year but it was still worse than what analysts had expected. Revenues were slightly higher than estimates. Outlook was overall positive as company expected to post a turnover that is a low single-digit-percentage increase on the previous year. Also out of Switzerland, Straumann [STMN.SZ]reported earnings in line with estimates and reiterated that it expected market to continue growing in the low single digits.
- Austrian name Voestalpine [VOE.AS], reported a net profit in line with estimates and up from a loss of €50M last year. Revenues were slightly higher. Shares were up 2% in early trade as company raised its expectations for FY1. In follow-up comments, the CEO expected solid demand to continue into H1 2011 and forecasted a double-digit sales growth in 2011 while dismissing the possibility of a double dip.

- Speakers:
Japan PM Kan: To discuss with both Finance and Economic ministries about economic stimulus measures by end of the month
- A senior Japanese Gov't official stated in the Japanese press that states that Japan should not intervene in FX markets at this time but is an option should the currency strength further - Japanese press
- Japan Trade Min Naoshima commented that he has talked with PM Kan regarding currency moves and noted that the rise in yen has been accelerating . He did not provide any specifics discussed on economic measure with PM Kan but noted that the PM was observing the economy with a sense of urgency and the PM was aware Yen rise was accelerating-
- Japan Deputy Fin Minezaki commented that the rise in yen currency was having severe effects on country's exporters. He added that the Yen currency had a tendency to appreciate because of deflation in the country and expressed doubts as to whether further monetary easing but the BOJ would help
Japan escape any liquidity trap. Lastly he refused to comments on whether current yen level was too high or too low
- China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE):: Q2 current account: $70.5B, up 30% y/y; Currency Reserve rise by 81.1B

- Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD tried to maintain a firmer tone against the European pairs as the session began. Some risk aversion began to simmer after the London Times reported that French President Sarkozy had ordered top ministers to return early from summer vacation to discuss economy in a meeting to be held on Friday Aug 20th. The London Times reported that the meeting on the economy was called after Moody warned that the country was closer to losing its sovereign "AAA" credit rating. EUR/USD tested the 1.2770 level but could not come close to breaking the recent lows of 1.2750 from earlier in the week. The GBP/USD once again tested the 1.5500 area. However, better
UK retail sales and lower borrowing data reversed the intra-day trend and sent the European currencies to session highs against the greenback. EUR/USD entering the NY morning back above the 1.28 level while GBP/USD surged almost 150 pips post data to test 1.5650. The UK Treasury was quick to note that July public finance data showed receipts were strengthening in line with OBR forecasts
- The USD/JPY tried to move above the 86 handle early in the session as Japanese officials continued their verbal intervention but the pair remained stuck with an 85 handle as dealers surmised that any BoJ emergency meeting was 'unlikely'.

- In the Papers-Geopolitical:
- The London Times reported that French President Sarkozy ordered his top ministers to return early from summer vacation to discuss economy on Friday, August 20th, as he prepares for deficit cuts and reforms to the pension system. In addition, the London Times reported that the meeting on the economy was called after Moody warned that the country is closer to losing its sovereign "AAA" credit rating.
- In
China, Finance Minister Xie stated that its government is studying local government debt mechanism. He said that borrowing by local governments is manageable and does not pose a systemic risk. He further mentioned that banks have prepared adequately for bad loans to local governments with high provisions, and that local government projects have enough cash flow.
In the Wall Street Journal's 'Heard on the Street', the article suggested the rally in US treasuries may have 'run its course', particularly if the Federal Reserve can reflate the economy and rekindle inflation. It noted recent speculation of the Fed possibly purchasing treasuries may support prices and pressure yields in the short-term, but could also defeat the deflationary threat. Further, the depth of credit crunch in early 2009 marked the peak in Treasuries, as 10-yr yields hit a low of 2.21% in January but recovered to 3.83% by year-end.

***Looking Ahead***
- (PO) Bank of Portugal Statistical Bulletin
- (BR) Brazil Jul CAGED Formal Job Creation: No est v 213.0K prior
- (AR) Argentina Aug Consumer Confidence: No est v 48.17 -prior
- 6:00 (UK) Aug CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders v -14e v -16 prior
- 6:00 (RU) Russia to sell up to RUB5B in OBR Notes
- 7:30 (GE) Chancellor Merkel and Czech PM Neas press conference
- 8:30 (CA) Canada July Leading Indicators M/M: 0.7%e v 1.0% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Jun Wholesale Sales M/M: +0.4%e v -0.1% prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 478Ke v 484K prior; Continuing Claims: No est v 4.50M prior
- 10:00 (US) Philadelphia Fed: 7.2e v 5.1 prior
- 10:00 (US) July Leading Indicators: +0.1%e v -0.2% prior
- 10:30 (US) EIA Weekly Nat gas inventories
- 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada Quarterly Review
- 12:00 (TU) Turkey Central Bank Interest rate Decisions: Consensus expectations for the both the Benchmark Repo Rate and Overnight Borrowing to remain unchanged at 7.0% and 6.50% respectively
- 12:30 (US) Fed Bullard



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