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Thursday August 19, 2010 - 10:45:20 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 19/08/2010
ForexPros Daily Analysis
August 19, 2010
Analysis: Core CPI
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures
the changes in the price of
goods and services excluding food and energy. The
CPI measures price change
from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key
way to measure changes in
purchasing trends and inflation in Canada.
higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the
(as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may
foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be
negative/bearish for the CAD. The analysts predict a future reading
The Euro's bounce from
the bottom it reached shortly after the weekly open
at 1.2733, halted
yesterday at 1.2920. Such a rebound is considered very
"modest" comparing to
the drop it followed, which came very close to 600
pips! We can clearly see
that we have not even reached the first Fibonacci
level 38.2%. Technically,
the most important event was dropping, and now
reaching, another important
trend line, which is the rising trend line from
June 7th low (please refer to
the attached chart). This line which was
tested accurately on Monday, is
running now at 1.2793, and it was touched
and slightly surpassed during the
Asian session, with the price bottoming at
1.2781. If this level is broken,
we will be already on the way to break this
week's low 1.2733 as we target
1.2660 first, then 1.2604. On the other hand,
resistance is at 1.2867. Only
with a break here will the Euro be able to
move forward. If we get this
break, we think that the price will rise with
the target of reaching
Fibonacci levels 1.2991& 1.3057.
* 1.2793: the
rising trend line from Jun 7th low on the hourly chart.
* 1.2660: Jul 6th
* 1.2604: Fibonacci 50% for the whole rise from 1.1875 to
* 1.2867: important intraday level.
1.2991: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high
* 1.3057: Fibonacci 50% level for the drop from the 3-month
high of 1.3332.
Boredom is back!
Boredom is here again! As we have seen in previous periods
this year, the
Dollar/Yen is back to trading in very tight ranges, it did
not break any of
the levels specified in yesterday's report. It approached
85 but failed to
make a break, it also stayed the whole time below the
resistance 86.21. Let's
leave the daily & weekly charts we have been
obsessed with lately, and
just focus on the hourly chart. We can see that
there is a very exciting
trend line, dropping from June 4th top. This line
is running currently at
86.06. Therefore, all of our attention is at the
exciting trend line &
the importance it provides. As long as we are trading
below this line, the
downtrend will be ok, but if we break the resistance
86.06 we will shoot up
targeting 87.00 and may be 87.70. Where if we go back
to trade below the
support 85.35, we will target 84.70 first, and there will
be nothing stopping
the price from reaching our awaited target 83.85.
85.35: the rising trend line from this week's low on the hourly chart.
84.70: This year's low, and the lowest level since 1995..
* 83.87: Fibonacci
extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86,
compared to the wave
which started at 88.10.
* 86.06: the falling trend
line from June 4th top on the hourly chart, and
Aug 10th top.
* 87.00: Jul
* 87.70: June 26th top.
---Forex trading analysis written
by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
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