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Thursday August 19, 2010 - 21:03:35 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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Forex Research - Morning Report (Westpac)

Morning Report Friday 20 August 2010

 

News and views

 

Weak data hurt markets. US equities meandered in directionless trading until two disappointing reports from the US – first an unexpected rise in jobless claims, followed 1½ hours later by a plunge in the in Philadelphia Fed business survey – belted sentiment, sending the S&P500 2.3% lower, the index currently down 1.8%. European stocks were similarly hurt. Most commodities fell, oil down 1.4% and copper -0.9%. US 3mth Libor drifted another 0.6bp lower to 0.339%. US 10yr treasury yields fell 8bp to 2.556%, a fresh post-March 2009 low, while 2yr notes fell 2bp to a fresh record low of 0.47%. The Fed bought $3.6b of 6yr to 10yr treasuries, slightly more than expected.

 

The US dollar index benefited from the weaker data, rising from 82.00 to 82.60 after the releases. EUR earlier rose to 1.2900, the German central bank upgrading its 2010 economic growth forecast from 1.9% to 3.0%, but the US data pushed it down to 1.2790 where it stabilised. Safe-havens yen and the Swiss franc were the day’s outperformers,

 

USD/JPY falling from 85.80 to 84.90 before settling around 85.30.

 

AUD followed US equities closely, falling from an intraday peak of 0.9018 to 0.8906. NZD fell from 0.7156 to 0.7057. AUD/NZD followed risk sentiment in a dampened and skewed manner, slightly firmer on the day at 1.2615.

 

US initial jobless claims rise 12k to 500k in the week of the August payrolls survey. That’s the highest outcome since Q4 last year when payrolls were still contracting. With no special factors or distortions noted by the Labor Dept, the implication is that more US workers are being laid off than at any time over the previous nine months. In contrast, in the prior week, continuing claims fell 13k to 4487k.

 

US Philadelphia Fed index crashes from 5.1 to –7.7 in August. The detail was weak to, with orders down 3.2pts to –7.1 (second consecutive decline), shipments down 8.5pts to –4.5 and jobs down 6.7pts to –2.7. More evidence that the industrial sector will be slowing in coming months, probably even contracting.

 

In other US news, the leading index was up 0.1% in July and June revised lower to –0.3%. That’s the weakest two month reading since Q1 last year. Also, the Congressional Budget Office published revised deficit numbers for 2011: $1066bn up from $966bn.

 

Canadian data also soft. The leading index was up 0.4% in July and June was revised down to 0.7%, the softest back to back readings since mid 2009. Wholesale sales fell 0.3% in June and have not posted a rise since March, the weakest set of readings since H1 2009.

 

German producer prices rise 3.7% yr in July, up from 1.7% yr in

June, the sharp rise due to a 0.5% gain in the month and base effects.

 

UK retail sales jump 1.1% in July. That’s the third solid sales month in a row. Most of the strength was in non-store retailing and other, much of which is internet sales, although clothing was quite solid to due to warm weather. Food and household goods sales both fell, probably a post-World Cup impact.

 

Outlook

 

AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: AUD appears to be heading for 0.8860 support, while NZD is heading for 0.7000.

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division).

Information current as at 13 August 2010. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s

financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without

notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

 

 

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