The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2900
figure and was supported around the $1.2770 level.The common currency bounced higher off the
100-day moving average during the North American session but failed to sustain
a brief test of the US$ 1.2900 figure.Traders
cited few fundamental reasons to get long the common currency after U.S. weekly
initial jobless claims increased to 500,000 from the revised previous total of
488,000 while continuing jobless claims came off to 4.487 million from the
revised total of 4.491 million.These
data suggest the unemployment problem in the U.S. is not improving much and
there continue to be a significant amount of disenfranchised jobseekers who are
leaving the labour market.Other data
today saw the August Philadelphia Fed index reverse course and weaken to -7.7
from the July reading of +5.1.Also,
July leading indicators gained steam and printed at +0.1%, up from the prior
reading of -0.3%.The July Chicago Fed
national activity index will be released on Monday.The Fed purchased US$ 3.609 billion of
Treasuries today as part of its program to reinvest maturing mortgage debt into
long-term government debt and this took the Fed‚Äôs total purchases since the
program started on 17 August to US$ 6.16 billion.St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President
Bullard today said ‚ÄúShould economic developments suggest increased disinflation
risk, purchases of Treasury securities in excess of those required to keep the
size of the balance sheet constant may be warranted.‚ÄĚBullard also said ‚Äúlabour reallocation will
take a long time.‚ÄĚIn eurozone news, German July producer prices were up 0.5% m/m and
3.7% y/y.Many EMU-16 economic data will
be released on Monday.Euro offers
are cited around the US$ 1.3240 level.
The yen appreciated
vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¬•84.90
level and was capped around the ¬•85.90 level. Australasian traders pushed the pair to
intraday highs buy European and North American traders bought the yen back in a
very volatile session.Bank of Japan
officials are said to be still deliberating the impact of the yen‚Äôs rise to a
fifteen-year high.The yen moved lower
overnight on a Japanese media report that the BoJ will expand a ¬•20 trillion
credit program to as much as ¬•30 trillion.Prime Minister Kan and BoJ Governor plan to meet next week and there is
speculation the two will try to coordinate policy further.U.S. banking giant JPMorgan Chase has
reported the probability of yen-selling intervention is at a six-year high of
51%.Vice finance minister Minezaki
verbally intervened saying ‚ÄúI‚Äôm a bit concerned about the competition of
currency depreciation.We need
international cooperation. There is no doubt that a strong yen is having a very
severe impact on exporters.It‚Äôs our
challenge to consider how we are going to support them.‚ÄĚ Data released in Japan
overnight saw the June all-industry activity index climb 0.2% m/m while July
machine tool orders ticked higher to 144.9% y/y.Also, July Tokyo-area department store sales
improved to -1.7% y/y and July nationwide department sales improved to -1.4%
y/y.July convenience store sales will
be released overnight.The Nikkei 225 stock
index climbed 1.32% today to close at ¬•9,362.88.U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¬•84.60
moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the
¬•109.25 level and was capped around the ¬•110.10 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ¬•132.75 level while the Swiss franc moved
higher vis-√†-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¬•82.85 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7908 in the
over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7919. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange
reported China‚Äôs Q2 current account surplus was up 30% y/y to US$ 70.5 billion
but was off 8% in the first half of the year to US$ 124.2 billion, equivalent to
4.9% of gross domestic product.China
continues to diversify its foreign exchange reserves and internationalize the
British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.5670 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5505 level. Data
released in the U.K. today saw July headline retail sales up 1.1% m/m and 1.3%
y/y while the ex-auto and fuel component was up 0.9% m/m and 2.4% y/y.Also, the July public sector net cash
requirement fell to -¬£4.1 billion from the prior reading of ¬£20.7 billion and
July public sector net borrowing fell to ¬£3.2 billion from the prior reading of
¬£13.9 billion.Additionally, the July M4
money supply was up 0.4% m/m and 2.3% y/y and July mortgage approvals ticked
lower to 47,000 from 48,000.Finally,
August CBI trends total orders improved to -14 from the prior reading of -16.As expected, Bank of England‚Äôs August
Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes were released this week in which
policymakers voted 8-to-1 to keep its main Bank rate unchanged at 0.50% and its
asset purchase program unchanged at ¬£200 billion.Again, MPC member Sentance voted for a +25bps
increase in the Bank rate to +0.75%.Cable
bids are cited around the US$ 1.5385 level.The euro depreciated
vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ¬£0.8190
level and was capped around the ¬£0.8245 level.
franc appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0255 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0465 level. Data released in Switzerland today saw the
July trade balance climb to CHF 2.89 billion from the CHF 1.77 prior
reading.Also, the August Credit Suisse
ZEW survey of expectations improved to 9.1 from the prior reading of 7.2.Central bankers continue to deliberate
tighter global bank standards and the Basel Committee is reporting an increase
in requirements would ‚Äúboost confidence‚ÄĚ and ‚Äúhave a modest impact on output.‚ÄĚU.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF
1.0980 level.The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single
currency tested bids around the CHF 1.3205 level while the British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids
around the CHF 1.6045 level.
Forex Trading News
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Mon 19 Feb 2018
00:00 CN, US- Holiday Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A All Day flash PMIs A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 15:30 US- EIA Crude AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes Thu 22 Feb 2018 A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey A 09:30 GB- GDP AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP AA 13:30 CA- CPI
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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