December Gold soared to the upside on Thursday following a
sharp break in U.S.
equity markets. Traders increased their long hedges in gold on the stock market
weakness. As mentioned several times the past few weeks, gold (hard asset) and
stocks (paper) are competing for the same investment Dollar. Gold has had a
tendency to rally lately following sell-offs in the stock market. This trend
continued on Thursday. The .618 level at $1228.00 has to hold in order to sustain
the upside momentum.
Technically, gold broke out over a pair of major
downtrending Gann angles from the $1270.60 and $1267.50 tops overnight. This
helped trigger stops and bring in additional momentum buyers.
September Treasury Bonds hit a new high for the year on
Thursday. This move reversed earlier weakness in this market. Traders bought
T-Bonds for safety and not speculation. Therefore, donâ€™t believe the hype about
a bubble formation. Quite frankly, why not buy them if the Fed saying they are going
to buy them. Bond traders are probably the smartest traders in the world. They
saw the weakness in the economy developing before anyone else did.
Equity markets were under pressure before the opening
following a sharp sell-off this morning, triggered by a bearish initial claims
report. The daily chart indicates that the September E-mini S&P 500 is
poised to accelerate to the downside once it breaks an uptrending Gann angle at
1068.75 and a major 50% price level at 1065.25. This move could fuel more selling
pressure to 1050.50.
The resumption of the downtrend in the equities markets
triggered a sharp break in the commodity-linked currencies with the New Zealand
Dollar leading the way lower. Todayâ€™s surprisingly bad U.S. weekly initial claims report
renewed fears of a shutdown of the global economy. If investors continue to shy
away from risk, then look for further weakness in the Canadian Dollar and
Australian Dollar also.
One question traders are asking each other is whether the
Dollar is trending or if it is rangebound. On one hand some traders believe in
a bullish scenario for the Dollar because of flight to safety buying. Bearish
traders believe the U.S.
economy will grow at a slower rate than the rest of the world. This clash
between the fundamentals could produce side ways action highlighted by periodic
Technically, the Aussie rally failed this week at the 50%
price level of the .9221 to .8857 range at .9039. This move has set up a
developing bearish secondary lower top. Based on the current chart pattern,
look for further weakness with .8644 the next downside target.
Earlier this week the New Zealand Dollar completed a 50%
retracement of its recent downswing. The range from .7355 to .6996 ended
slightly above the .7175 level at .7191. The charts are suggesting a move to
.6977 to .6879 is likely over the near-term.
On Thursday, the U.S. Dollar rose sharply as risk aversion
is back on following a surprisingly weak U.S. jobless claims report.
Especially hit hard during the Greenbackâ€™s rally were the commodity-linked
The Euro traded lower after a weak attempt to rally failed
after the bearish U.S. report and on the heels of a better than expected
forecast for German economic growth.
Technically the Euro is still rangebound amid confusion by
traders. Buying and selling interest appears to be even as the bulls want to
buy Euros on speculation of renewed strength in the Euro Zone economy but the
bears feel the need to sell because of a dim outlook for the global economy.
The charts indicate impending volatility but the direction
of the next move is not clear. A breakout to the upside is likely to be met
with selling pressure at 1.3033 to 1.3104. A breakdown through support could
trigger a downside acceleration to 1.2605 to 1.2433.
The British Pound received a boost Thursday morning
following a better than expected U.K. retail sales report. This
rally died, however, short of a breakout above the recent high at 1.5701 and
after sentiment shifted away from risky assets.
Technically, the Sterling
is trapped between a pair of 50% levels at 1.5560 and 1.5635. Major support is
being provided by an uptrending Gann angle from the 1.4229 bottom at 1.5529
today. A close under this angle could trigger a tremendous downslide.
The September Japanese Yen started the day in a potentially
bearish position as it tried to build resistance inside of a retracement zone
at 1.1692 to 1.1719. At one time today, it looked as if the Yen was readying to
breakout below the last swing bottom at 1.1579. This move wouldâ€™ve changed the
daily trend to down.
This market rallied sharply after the U.S. released a
surprisingly bad weekly initial claims report. U.S. equities sold off on the news,
triggering a flight to safety rally in the Japanese Yen. Unless this market can
regain the retracement zone, look for 1.1579 to fail. This would put the
Japanese Yen at a new multi-year low.
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