Friday August 20, 2010 - 03:47:31 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 20-Aug-2010 - 0345 GMT
The US markets tumbled yesterday following weak economic data release yesterday. The unexpected increase in the initial jobless claims and a fall in manufacturing activity triggered the fall. The Dow (10271.21) was down 1.39% and Nasdaq (2178.95) was down 1.66%).
The Asian markets are in the red today following the US markets. Nikkei (9254.64) is down 1.15% and Shanghai (2657.71) is down 1.13%. The Sensex and Nifty had closed higher yesterday. The Sensex (18454.94) was up 1.08% and Nifty (5540.20) was up 1.11% and are very close to their respective important Resistance at 18500 and 5600 which might hold today as the market is expected to trade lower following the other markets.
Crude (74.57) fell sharply and closed below 75 yesterday. The commodity price is continuing to follow the US equity markets which fell more than 1% yesterday following the weak economic data release. As mentioned earlier 74.20-00 is a very important Support region to watch for and with the current downside momentum we see slightly higher chances of a break and further downmove below 74 towards 70 in the coming days. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1231.80) is continuing to trade strong. The global economic recovery/growth concerns is diverting the investors towards the safety assests like gold. The overall bullish sentiment is intact and we might see further rise towards 1250-60 in the coming days. Support is seen at 1220. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
Rise in US weekly jobless claims and a very weak Philly Fed index reading yesterday have served to dampen the Euro (1.2810) and bring down the Pound (1.5587) and the Aussie (0.8915). The Aussie, in particular, has broken below an important short-term chart point at 0.8930. It now has an important Support at 0.8850. The Euro and the Pound are still within the ranges of 1.2725-2925 and 1.55-57 respectively, that they have been trading in throughout this week.
The Jap Yen (85.50) had fallen to a low near 84.90 yesterday. It has bounced a bit from there today, but has important Resistance at 85.90-86.00. Dollar-Swiss (1.0324), in the meanwhile, had broken below the 1.0330 range support to fall to a low of 1.0257.
Overall, the Dollar has consolidated against most pairs this week, after having gained substantially last week. With economic numbers weakening in the USA and in Europe (Greek, Irish, Hungarian debt issues are rearing their heads again), there can be chances of further strength for the Dollar (witness the Dollar Index, which is 82.517) next week. The Yen and the Swissy had gained against the Dollar, but have weakened a bit again, possibly on fears of central bank intervention.
In Asia, the Won (1179) and the Sing Dollar (1.3535) have weakened a bit since yesterday. The Malaysian Ringgitt (3.1330) is trading a mite weaker, after having strengthened to 3.1233 yesterdy.
The Rupee market was closed yesterday for Parsi New Year. It might weaken a bit today from Wednesday's closing near 46.56. The 1-week NDF is trading near 46.58/63.
The 3M USD LIBOR was down 1 bps to be set at 0.34%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were down 2 bps and 4 bps each to quote at 0.48% and 2.58% respectively.
11:00 GMT CA Core Inflation Index Y/Y
July US Philifed Index
...Actual -7.7...Previous 5.1
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