The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2665
level and was capped around the $1.2830 level. The common currency sold off
today to its weakest level in five weeks after European Central Bank member
Weber suggested the central bank will keep monetary policy unchanged through at
least the end of the year.Weber
indicated rates would likely be on hold to assist banks with their year-end
funding requirements and the euro sold off as Weber is generally regarded as a
monetary hawk.Weber is the perceived
front-runner to replace ECB President Trichet next year and Weber said the next
ECB President must be prepared to deliver ‚Äúundiplomatic‚ÄĚ messages to
governments, an indication of his strict fiscal orthodoxy.The pair finished the week lower for the
second consecutive week and stopped just short of testing the US$ 1.2645 level,
representing the 23.6% retracement of the $1.5145 ‚Äď 1.1955 range.Data to be released in the eurozone on Monday
include Augut PMI manufacturing, August PMI services, and August eurozone
consumer confidence.German Q2 GDP data
will also be released on Monday.ECB
member Honohan reports he sees a ‚Äústronger tone‚ÄĚ to the European economy.In
U.S. news, data to be released on Monday include the July Chicago Fed
national activity index.Dealers are
still talking about yesterday‚Äôs U.S. economic data that saw weekly initial
jobless claims move higher to 500,000, a multi-week high.Euro offers are cited around the US$
The yen depreciated
vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¬•85.80
level and was supported around the ¬•85.20 level. Traders lifted the pair higher on speculation
Bank of Japan may ease monetary policy further.Data released in Japan overnight saw July convenience store sales up
0.5% y/y from the June reading of -1.5% y/y.Bank of Japan officials are said to be still deliberating the impact of
the yen‚Äôs rise to a fifteen-year high.Finance
minister Noda today said ‚ÄúI want to closely cooperate with the BoJ.I want to keep in close contact.‚ÄĚThere is speculation BoJ will expand a ¬•20
trillion credit program to as much as ¬•30 trillion.Prime Minister Kan and BoJ Governor plan to
meet next week and there is speculation the two will try to coordinate policy
further.U.S. banking giant JPMorgan
Chase has reported the probability of yen-selling intervention is at a six-year
high of 51%.Vice finance minister
Minezaki verbally intervened this week saying ‚ÄúI‚Äôm a bit concerned about the
competition of currency depreciation.We
need international cooperation. There is no doubt that a strong yen is having a
very severe impact on exporters.It‚Äôs
our challenge to consider how we are going to support them.‚ÄĚThe Nikkei 225 stock index lost 1.96% to
close at ¬•9,179.38.U.S. dollar bids are
cited around the ¬•84.60 level.The euro
moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the
¬•108.25 level and was capped around the ¬•109.60 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ¬•131.95 level while the Swiss franc moved
higher vis-√†-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¬•83.00 figure. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7905 in the
over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7908. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange this
week reported China‚Äôs Q2 current account surplus was up 30% y/y to US$ 70.5
billion but was off 8% in the first half of the year to US$ 124.2 billion,
equivalent to 4.9% of gross domestic product.China continues to diversify its foreign exchange reserves and
internationalize the yuan.The yuan is
expected to slowly appreciate on account of the government‚Äôs policy.
British pound depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.5460 level and was capped around the US$ 1.5600 figure. Data
released in the U.K. this week saw July headline retail sales up 1.1% m/m and
1.3% y/y while the ex-auto and fuel component was up 0.9% m/m and 2.4%
y/y.Also, the July public sector net
cash requirement fell to -¬£4.1 billion from the prior reading of ¬£20.7 billion
and July public sector net borrowing fell to ¬£3.2 billion from the prior
reading of ¬£13.9 billion.Additionally,
the July M4 money supply was up 0.4% m/m and 2.3% y/y and July mortgage
approvals ticked lower to 47,000 from 48,000.Finally, August CBI trends total orders improved to -14 from the prior
reading of -16.As expected, Bank of
England‚Äôs August Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes were released this
week in which policymakers voted 8-to-1 to keep its main Bank rate unchanged at
0.50% and its asset purchase program unchanged at ¬£200 billion.Again, MPC member Sentance voted for a +25bps
increase in the Bank rate to +0.75%.Cable
bids are cited around the US$ 1.5385 level.The euro depreciated
vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ¬£0.8170
level and was capped around the ¬£0.8245 level.
franc depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.0390 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0285 level. Data released in Switzerland this week saw the
July trade balance climb to CHF 2.89 billion from the CHF 1.77 prior
reading.Also, the August Credit Suisse
ZEW survey of expectations improved to 9.1 from the prior reading of 7.2.Central bankers continue to deliberate
tighter global bank standards and the Basel Committee is reporting an increase
in requirements would ‚Äúboost confidence‚ÄĚ and ‚Äúhave a modest impact on
output.‚ÄĚU.S. dollar offers are cited
around the CHF 1.0980 level.The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the
Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.3140 level
while the British pound moved lower
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.6010 level.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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