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Monday August 23, 2010 - 09:36:50 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 23/08/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis August 23,
Analysis: Existing Home Sales
The Existing Home Sales measures
the annualized number of existing
residential buildings that were sold during
the previous month. This report
helps to analyze the strength of the US
housing market, which helps to
analysis the economy as a whole. A higher than
expected reading should be
taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a
lower than expected reading
should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
The analysts predict a
future reading of 4.75M.
As expected, the Euro landed hard after breaking the
support we specified in
Friday's report 1.2791, dropping more than 125 pips,
and stopping only 3
pips before meeting our target @ 1.2660. With this new
extension to the
medium term drop from 1.3332, the size of this drop has
become enormous, and
cannot be ignored. Last week, we suggested a wave count
with 5 complete
waves up from 1.1875. But, until this moment, we have not
reached but only
the first Fibonacci retracement level for the 5-wave move at
Therefore, in spite of the size of this drop, we highly doubt that it
shown all its cards. We believe this drop is capable of reaching
50% at least, or even go lower than that. But, what increases the
these areas, is that after such a huge move, the Euro is subject to
correction at any time, and from any level. Short term support is at
Asian session low 1.2688. A break here would be a confirmation that we
heading to Fibonacci 50% at 1.2604, and at a later time 1.2522. On the
hand, resistance is at 1.2791, this pair cannot continue achieving
unless we break the resistance 1.2791. In case we get this break, we
heading to 1.2919 & 1.2998.
Asian session low.
* 1.2604: Fibonacci 50% for the whole rise from 1.1875 to
* 1.2552: Jul 13th low.
* 1.2791: the
falling trend line from Aug 6th high on the intraday chart.
Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high of
1.2998: Fibonacci 50% level for the drop from the 3-month high of
The Dollar/Yen did not
break the support or the resistance specified in
Friday's report. It traded
in a very dull range of almost 55 pips, and we
are still waiting for a break
bringing some excitement to this pair. Let's
leave the daily & weekly
charts we have been obsessed with lately, and just
focus on the hourly chart.
We can see that there is a very exciting trend
line, dropping from June 4th
top. This line is running currently at 85.80.
Therefore, all of our attention
is at the exciting trend line & the
importance it provides. As long as we
are trading below this line, the
downtrend will be ok, but if we break the
resistance 85.80 we will shoot up
targeting 87.00 and may be 87.70. The
support is provided by an important
intraday support at 85.18. If broken, we
will target 84.70 first, and there
will be nothing stopping the price from
reaching our awaited target 83.87,
except for the
* 85.18: important intraday level.
This year's low, and the lowest level since 1995..
* 83.87: Fibonacci
extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86,
compared to the wave
which started at 88.10.
* 85.80: the falling trend
line from June 4th top on the hourly chart.
* 87.00: Jul 7th low.
June 26th top.
---Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for
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15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
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13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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