The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2680
level and was capped around the $1.2730 level. The common currency‚Äôs intraday low represents
the pair‚Äôs weakest level since 13 July and is right around the 23.6%
retracement of the $1.5140 - $1.1875 range.Similarly, the $1.2605 represents the 50% retracement of the $1.1875 -
$1.3335 range.Data released in the U.S.
today saw the July Chicago Fed national activity index improve to 0.00 from the
revised June reading of -0.70.Data to
be released tomorrow include July existing home sales and the August Richmond
Fed manufacturing index.Kansas City Fed
President Hoenig provided testimony today, saying ‚ÄúThe economy will continue to
improve.I think we will have new
opportunities.I think we will
prosper.However, we have some things to
get through.First of all, we have a
great deal of uncertainty‚ÄĚ (on account of health care and financial
regulation).He added ‚ÄúWe are also in
the process of deleveraging.‚ÄĚSpeaking
about the real estate market, Hoenig reported ‚ÄúIf the American people are
looking for the housing market to be their investment opportunity, I think they
are making a mistake.We have an excess
supply, and we created that by providing financing, leverage, that was almost
nonsense.‚ÄĚHoenig also pessimistically
warned that commercial real estate ‚Äúwill be a drag on earnings for some
quarters yet.‚ÄĚThe Federal Reserve Bank
of New York received nearly US$ 4 billion in repayments from American
International Group, representing AIG‚Äôs partial repayment of its emergency
credit facility the Fed provided.A U.S.
appeals court today refused to reconsider a ruling that would force the Fed to identify
which financial firms faced collapse prior to the Fed‚Äôs and government‚Äôs
bailout.In eurozone news, data released today saw EMU-16 August PMI
manufacturing decline to 55.0 while the PMI services reading weakened to 55.6,
taking the composite lower to 56.1.Other data saw the EMU-16 August consumer confidence index improve to
-12 from the prior reading of -14.Also,
German August manufacturing PMI weakened while August services PMI improved, contrasting
with France‚Äôs improvement in manufacturing and deceleration in services.Traders are still talking about remarks made
by ECB official Weber on Friday wherein he suggested official eurozone interest
rates will likely be on hold until Q2 2011.Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.3240 level.
The yen appreciated
vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¬•85.10
level and was capped around the ¬•85.70 level. Traders continue to test the resilience of
Japanese monetary authorities, intent on determining whether or not Japan has
enough conviction to conduct unilateral yen-selling intervention.Prime Minister Kan and Bank of Japan Governor
Shirakawa spoke today and it was reported there was ‚Äúabsolutely no‚ÄĚ discussion
of yen-selling intervention.Kan ordered
his government to identify new stimulus measures last week.The government continues to pressure the
central bank to enact more monetary easing, possibly by purchasing more assets
including Japanese government bonds.Bank
of Japan has few options remaining as to how it can counter the ongoing
deflationary pressures in the Japanese economy. The central bank may be forced to expand at ¬•20
trillion credit facility to ¬•30 trillion to reduce short-term interest
rates.Dealers continue to cite stops
below the ¬•84.70 level and chartists cite the ¬•81.80/ ¬•80.80/ 79.00 levels as
significant downside targets.Data
released in Japan overnight saw July supermarket sales off 1.2% y/y. Data to be released on Wednesday include July
trade numbers and the July corporate service price index.The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.68% to
close at ¬•9,116.69.U.S. dollar bids are
cited around the ¬•84.60 level.The euro
moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the
¬•108.05 level and was capped around the ¬•108.85 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ¬•132.20 level while the Swiss franc moved
lower vis-√†-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¬•82.05 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8000 in the
over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.7905. Data to be released in China this week include
the July leading index and August MNI business conditions survey.The yuan remains under pressure following
remarks from ECB official Weber who suggested the central bank may need to keep
borrowing costs unchanged through early next year.Europe is China‚Äôs largest trading partner.
British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.5620 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5520 figure. Some traders anticipate verbal intervention
from Bank of England officials in a bid to talk down sterling which has
sustained gains of more than ten big figures in less than three months.Some private economists are speculating Bank
of England‚Äôs Monetary Policy Committee will need to lift rates substantially to
tackle inflation that may germinate from the BoE‚Äôs asset purchase program and a
possible return of stronger economic growth.Data to be released in the U.K. tomorrow include July BBA loans for
house purchases.Cable bids are cited
around the US$ 1.5385 level.The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the
British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ¬£0.8140 level and
was capped around the ¬£0.8175 level.
franc depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.0380 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0300 figure. Data released in Switzerland today saw July M3
money supply growth decelerate to +6.5% y/y from the revised June reading of
+7.4% y/y.Data to be released on
Thursday include Q2 employment and data to be released on Friday include the
August KOF Swiss leading indicator.Swiss
National Bank Chairman Hildebrand defended the central bank‚Äôs franc-selling
intervention, speculating without the massive intervention unemployment may
have reached 8%.SNB‚Äôs foreign reserves totaled
CHF 219.3 billion last month, far above the CHF 95 billion level reported at
the end of 2009.U.S. dollar offers are
cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the
Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3185 level
while the British pound moved higher
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.6135 level.
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Mon 19 Feb 2018
00:00 CN, US- Holiday Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A All Day flash PMIs A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 15:30 US- EIA Crude AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes Thu 22 Feb 2018 A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey A 09:30 GB- GDP AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP AA 13:30 CA- CPI
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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